530 E 159th St #47 · New York, NY 10451

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · Condo · 100 Days on market

Built 1950

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

Key facts

• Well-kept building
• Great natural light
• Windowed kitchen

Tags

• WINDOWED KITCHEN
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• GREAT NATURAL LIGHT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• WELL-KEPT BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No carport; No designated parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Other utilities — see remarks
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Wall or window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Original details; Six total stories; Entry on 4th level; No basement; Five rooms total

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,728/mo this rent would consume 115% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 6917% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $994 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $149k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.09%
• DSCR: 3.45
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.67% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $116,622
• Equity at exit: $48,300

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $272,096
• Equity at exit: $62,247

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10451

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$783
• Net cashflow: $1,849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,952	-5% $1,900	+0% $1,849	+5% $1,797	+10% $1,746
Rent	-10% $1,554	-5% $1,702	+0% $1,849	+5% $1,996	+10% $2,143
Rate	-1.0pp $1,924	-0.5pp $1,887	base $1,849	+0.5pp $1,810	+1.0pp $1,771

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2413 3rd Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$4,022	$4.69	0d	21	1.41mi
5 Lincoln Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1011	$5,136	$5.08	0d	184	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-03-10
    listed $149,000 Active
13. 2024-04-23
    historical
14. 2024-04-06
    price $150,000
15. 2023-10-18
    listed $145,000 Active
16. 2015-06-16
    price $72,500 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

17. 2015-06-16
    soldstatus $72,500 Sold 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

18. 2015-06-16
    soldstatus $72,500

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

19. 2015-04-30
    historical Pending 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

20. 2015-04-30
    price $80,000 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

21. 2014-12-23
    status Active 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

22. 2014-10-08
    historical Pending 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

23. 2014-03-31
    listed $80,000 Active 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

24. 2014-03-31
    listed $80,000

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

25. 2014-02-12
    historical
26. 2014-02-11
    historical
27. 2014-01-09
    price
28. 2013-09-27
    listed Active
29. 2013-09-27
    listed $94,000
30. 2013-09-27
    historical
31. 2013-09-26
    historical
32. 2012-11-14
    listed Active
33. 2012-11-14
    listed $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,579
• − Management: −$3,579
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $21,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,069
• After-tax cash flow: $17,118/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 50,942
• Household income: $38,770
• Rent vs Own: 86.4% rent · 13.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 6917.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Black 40% Two or more races 12% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 24%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, United Kingdom, China
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 42% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Current HPI: 102.1498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+86.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-06 Price Changed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-18 Listed $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-16 Sold (MLS) $72,500 HGMLS
• 2015-06-16 Price Changed $72,500 HGMLS
• 2015-06-16 Sold (MLS) $72,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-30 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2015-04-30 Price Changed $80,000 HGMLS
• 2014-12-23 Relisted — HGMLS
• 2014-10-08 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2014-03-31 Listed $80,000 HGMLS
• 2014-03-31 Listed $80,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-12 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2014-02-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-09 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2013-09-27 Listed — HGMLS
• 2013-09-27 Listed $94,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-27 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2013-09-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-14 Listed $80,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-14 Listed — HGMLS