530 E 159th St #47 · New York, NY 10451

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · Townhouse · 149 Days on market

Built 1950 Fair condition $181/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great two Bedroom Apartment, ready to move in

Key facts

• Well-kept building
• Great natural light
• Windowed kitchen

Tags

• WINDOWED KITCHEN
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• GREAT NATURAL LIGHT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• WELL-KEPT BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $149k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 2.7% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,235/mo this rent would consume 131% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $994 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $149k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.61%
• DSCR: 3.96
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,909
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -58.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
808 Brook Ave Unit 9B	0.05mi	2/1.0	833 (+1%)	4mo	$325,000	$390	93
3044 3rd Ave Unit 6F	0.14mi	2/1.0	842 (+2%)	9mo	$346,000	$411	83
514 E 159th St Unit A	0.04mi	2/1.0	900 (+9%)	7mo	$345,000	$383	77
523 E 156th St Unit 65A	0.12mi	2/1.0	900 (+9%)	5mo	$385,000	$428	75
800 Brook Ave Unit 13B	0.05mi	2/1.0	896 (+9%)	10mo	$389,999	$435	75
800 Grand Concourse Unit 2JS	0.72mi	2/1.0	819 (-1%)	4mo	$299,000	$365	62
837 Washington Ave Unit 7H	0.13mi	2/1.0	926 (+12%)	16mo	$380,000	$410	60
1010 Sherman Ave Unit 5B	0.70mi	1/1.0 (-1)	850 (+3%)	3mo	$195,000	$229	54
800 Grand Concourse Unit 3K-S	0.72mi	2/1.0	850 (+3%)	11mo	$265,000	$312	52
800 Grand Concourse Unit 4G-N	0.74mi	2/1.0	900 (+9%)	6mo	$277,000	$308	46
811 Fox St Unit 4B	0.75mi	2/1.0	900 (+9%)	12mo	$210,000	$233	40
1185 Fulton Ave Unit G	0.66mi	2/1.0	700 (-15%)	14mo	$110,000	$157	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.67% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $141,924
• Equity at exit: $48,300

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.82×
• Total profit: $326,123
• Equity at exit: $62,247

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 31.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $200,000 ($265/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +62.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 10451

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$889
• Net cashflow: $2,249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,388

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,352	-5% $2,301	+0% $2,249	+5% $2,198	+10% $2,146
Rent	-10% $1,915	-5% $2,082	+0% $2,249	+5% $2,417	+10% $2,584
Rate	-1.0pp $2,324	-0.5pp $2,287	base $2,249	+0.5pp $2,211	+1.0pp $2,172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2413 3rd Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	875	$4,470	$5.11	1d	16	1.41mi
2385 Third Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$4,706	$5.36	2d	24	1.43mi
5 Lincoln Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	987	$5,268	$5.34	0d	70	1.43mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No carportNo designated parking
• Utilities: Public sewerOther utilities — see remarks
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heatingWall or window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Original detailsSix total storiesEntry on 4th levelNo basementFive rooms total

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-06
   days on market $149,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-08-05
   days on market $149,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-08-04
   days on market $149,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-08-03
   days on market $149,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-07-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-07-30
   days on market $149,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $149,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-07-26
   days on market $149,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $149,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $149,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $149,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $149,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $149,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $149,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $149,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $149,000 Active 128 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $149,000 Active 126 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $149,000 Active 125 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $149,000 Active 124 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $149,000 Active 123 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $149,000 Active 122 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 121 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 119 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $149,000 Active 118 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 116 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 115 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 114 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 113 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 112 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $149,000 Active 111 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $149,000 Active 110 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $149,000 Active 109 DOM
33. 2026-06-26
    days on market $149,000 Active 108 DOM
34. 2026-06-24
    days on market $149,000 Active 106 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $149,000 Active 104 DOM
36. 2026-06-21
    days on market $149,000 Active 103 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $149,000 Active 100 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $149,000 Active 99 DOM
39. 2026-06-15
    days on market $149,000 Active 97 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $149,000 Active 95 DOM
41. 2026-06-10
    days on market $149,000 Active 91 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 90 DOM
43. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 89 DOM
44. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 86 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 85 DOM
46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 83 DOM
47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 82 DOM
48. 2026-03-10
    listed $149,000 Active
49. 2024-04-23
    historical
50. 2024-04-06
    price $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,066
• − Management: −$4,066
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $26,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,295
• After-tax cash flow: $20,698/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $20,600–$37,080 screening

This property requires significant renovations to its kitchen, bathroom, and landscaping to increase its value. The home is located in a convenient location with easy access to public transportation and amenities.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are outdated and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major Kitchen countertops — The countertops are outdated and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major Kitchen appliances — The appliances are outdated and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are outdated and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major Flooring — The flooring is worn and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major Paint — The paint is peeling and in poor condition, requiring a fresh coat or significant renovation.
• Major Landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in poor condition, requiring significant renovation or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — A new kitchen with updated cabinetry, countertops, and appliances would significantly increase the home's value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — A new bathroom with updated fixtures and storage would significantly increase the home's value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscaping would significantly increase the home's curb appeal and value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Goldie Maple Academy F NY #1,729/2,108 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle South Bronx Academy For Applied Media F NY #715/729 Nat'l #13,057/14,009 High School For Classics High School B NY #715/1,100 Nat'l #2,167/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,607,353 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 50,942
• Household income: $38,770
• Rent vs Own: 86.4% rent · 13.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Black 40% Two or more races 12% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 24%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, United Kingdom, China
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 42% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Current HPI: 102.1498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No carportNo designated parking
• Utilities: Public sewerOther utilities — see remarks
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick constructionNot waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heatingWall or window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Original detailsSix total storiesEntry on 4th levelNo basementFive rooms total

Price history

+86.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-06 Price Changed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-18 Listed $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-16 Sold (MLS) $72,500 HGMLS
• 2015-06-16 Price Changed $72,500 HGMLS
• 2015-06-16 Sold (MLS) $72,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-30 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2015-04-30 Price Changed $80,000 HGMLS
• 2014-12-23 Relisted — HGMLS
• 2014-10-08 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2014-03-31 Listed $80,000 HGMLS
• 2014-03-31 Listed $80,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-12 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2014-02-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-09 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2013-09-27 Listed — HGMLS
• 2013-09-27 Listed $94,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-27 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2013-09-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-14 Listed $80,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-14 Listed — HGMLS