3545 E Oriole Ln

New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86409

$240,000C

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Active · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,237/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $347/mo
• Annual: $4,167/yr
• Cap rate: 8.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.20%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 643 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $240k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,237/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 688% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.