3901 Almond Rd

Big Sandy, TX 75755

$120,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,241/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $167/mo
• Annual: $1,999/yr
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.95%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#710 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Big Sandy ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Sandy El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 337 students, 77% FRL); Big Sandy J H (math 52% / reading 37%, grade D, #491 of 1,662 statewide, top 31%, 145 students, 71% FRL); Big Sandy H S (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 189 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.