4648 Pine Tree # B Cir

Sugar Hill, GA 30518

$219,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 265 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,830/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $110/mo
• Annual: $1,321/yr
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.15%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $61,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (16.8% below list).
• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#53 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $220k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.