4648 Pine Tree # B Cir · Sugar Hill, GA 30518

$219,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · Condo public records · 265 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity !!! 2 bedroom 1 bath half duplex ( Unit B ) in a great quiet neighborhood, remodeled with new windows, floor, cabinets, roof, new driveway, and the outside is freshly painted. Private backyard, close to shopping, 985 and 85. Low maintenance and income-producing. No HOA; tenants are responsible for all utilities and lawn maintenance, currently rented. Showing will be available during due diligence.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• New driveway
• Income producing

Tags

• REMODELED WITH NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DRIVEWAY
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• LOW MAINTENANCE
• INCOME PRODUCING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#53 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $220k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,959 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.15%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,071
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-41,711
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30518

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,690

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $172	+0% $110	+5% $48	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $38	+0% $110	+5% $182	+10% $255
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $166	base $110	+0.5pp $53	+1.0pp $-5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1100 Peachtree Industrial Blvd Sugar Hill, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1099	$2,300	$2.09	0d	10	0.54mi
1002 Level Creek Rd Unit 201 Sugar Hill, GA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	25d	1	0.70mi
5010 W Broad St Sugar Hill, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,972	$1.94	2d	23	0.76mi
1022 Level Creek Rd Sugar Hill, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$1,578	$1.46	0d	35	0.83mi
5037 Top Cat Ct Buford, GA	2.0	1.5	1024	$1,485	$1.45	44d	1	0.86mi
1320 Stanley St Sugar Hill, GA	3.0	1.0–2.5	1028	$2,232	$2.17	0d	33	0.94mi
1170 Temple Dr Sugar Hill, GA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1271	$2,203	$1.73	0d	18	0.96mi
100 Hartford Run NE Buford, GA	1.0	1.0	450	$1,249	$2.78	0d	6	0.97mi
100 Hartford Run NE Unit 0816 Buford, GA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,139	$1.90	25d	1	0.98mi
100 Hartford Run NE Unit 1810 Buford, GA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,249	$2.08	25d	1	0.98mi
4271 Woodward Mill Rd Sugar Hill, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,088	$1.79	0d	19	1.02mi
1450 Peachtree Industrial Blvd Sugar Hill, GA	3.0	1.0–3.0	1132	$2,209	$1.95	0d	81	1.08mi
1270 Hillcrest Dr Sugar Hill, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,918	$1.84	0d	28	1.10mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,900 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    price $219,900 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity !!! 2 bedroom 1 bath half duplex ( Unit B ) in a great quiet neighborhood, remodeled with new windows, floor, cabinets, roof, new driveway, and the outside is freshly painted. Private backyard, close to shopping, 985 and 85. Low maintenance and income-producing. No HOA; tenants are responsible for all utilities and lawn maintenance, currently rented. Showing will be available during due diligence.

15. 2025-12-23
    status Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity !!! 2 bedroom 1 bath half duplex ( Unit B ) in a great quiet neighborhood, remodeled with new windows, floor, cabinets, roof, new driveway, and the outside is freshly painted. Private backyard, close to shopping, 985 and 85. Low maintenance and income-producing. No HOA; tenants are responsible for all utilities and lawn maintenance, currently rented. Showing will be available during due diligence.

16. 2025-12-21
    historical Active Under Contract 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity !!! 2 bedroom 1 bath half duplex ( Unit B ) in a great quiet neighborhood, remodeled with new windows, floor, cabinets, roof, new driveway, and the outside is freshly painted. Private backyard, close to shopping, 985 and 85. Low maintenance and income-producing. No HOA; tenants are responsible for all utilities and lawn maintenance, currently rented. Showing will be available during due diligence.

17. 2025-11-07
    price $229,900 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity !!! 2 bedroom 1 bath half duplex ( Unit B ) in a great quiet neighborhood, remodeled with new windows, floor, cabinets, roof, new driveway, and the outside is freshly painted. Private backyard, close to shopping, 985 and 85. Low maintenance and income-producing. No HOA; tenants are responsible for all utilities and lawn maintenance, currently rented. Showing will be available during due diligence.

18. 2025-09-26
    listed $239,900 Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity !!! 2 bedroom 1 bath half duplex ( Unit B ) in a great quiet neighborhood, remodeled with new windows, floor, cabinets, roof, new driveway, and the outside is freshly painted. Private backyard, close to shopping, 985 and 85. Low maintenance and income-producing. No HOA; tenants are responsible for all utilities and lawn maintenance, currently rented. Showing will be available during due diligence.

19. 2024-09-16
    historical
20. 2024-09-16
    historical
21. 2024-03-16
    listed $239,900 New
22. 2024-03-16
    listed $239,900 Active
23. 2022-11-19
    historical
24. 2022-05-19
    listed $229,900 New
25. 2020-03-26
    soldstatus $81,000
26. 2020-03-16
    soldstatus $81,000 Closed
27. 2020-03-16
    soldstatus $81,000 Sold
28. 2020-03-09
    status Under Contract
29. 2020-03-09
    status Pending
30. 2020-03-06
    listed $85,000 Active
31. 2020-03-06
    listed $85,000 New
32. 1995-10-31
    soldstatus $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,023 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$937/yr (+$78/mo · 86.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,756
• − Management: −$1,756
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$2,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$590
• After-tax cash flow: $1,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gwinnett County
• NCES district ID: 1302550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $62,416
• Composite: 36.5/100
• National rank: #4648
• State rank: #32 of 174 in GA

Livability — Sugar Hill

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #5293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sugar Hill, GA
• County: Gwinnett County · 952,346 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 57,912
• Household income: $96,936
• Rent vs Own: 24.4% rent · 75.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Gwinnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,106,028 people
• By 2030: 1,211,414 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 1,422,277 · +28.6%
• By 2050: 1,623,204 · +46.8%
• By 2075: 2,105,240 · +90.3%
• By 2100: 2,443,321 · +120.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 13% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 18% Korean 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Gwinnett

• 2024 margin: D (+16.5) · D 57.6% · R 41.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +26.8pp toward D · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: 16.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.5 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+5.8 2012: R+9.4 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.45%
• Current HPI: 251.5141
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+359.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $219,900 FMLS
• 2025-12-23 Relisted — FMLS
• 2025-12-21 Contingent — FMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $229,900 FMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $239,900 FMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-03-16 Listed $239,900 FMLS
• 2024-03-16 Listed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2022-11-19 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-05-19 Listed $229,900 GAMLS
• 2020-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-16 Sold (MLS) $81,000 GAMLS
• 2020-03-16 Sold (MLS) $81,000 FMLS
• 2020-03-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-03-09 Pending — FMLS
• 2020-03-06 Listed $85,000 GAMLS
• 2020-03-06 Listed $85,000 FMLS
• 1995-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2019): $1,086 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.