4899 Merlin Cir

Ridge Manor, FL 33523

$154,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,039 sqft · Built 2008 · Manufactured · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$335
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $209/mo
• Annual: $2,506/yr
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $117k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.3% in Ridge Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.