4899 Merlin Cir · Ridge Manor, FL 33523

$154,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,039 sqft · Manufactured public records · 88 Days on market

Built 2008 0.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a spacious corner lot just shy of half an acre, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home offers plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. The property features a covered carport for convenient parking and an enclosed porch, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or creating additional living space to suit your needs. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with four bedrooms, a great room, dining area, and open kitchen - providing flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The generous lot size allows for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements, while the corner lot location offers added privacy and accessibility. Conveniently located in Dade City, this property is less than 1 mile to local shopping, dining, and major roadways (including I-75) while still offering a more relaxed, spacious setting. A great opportunity to make this property your own and take advantage of the space and potential it has to offer. Call today before it's too late!

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Enclosed porch
• Great room

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• COVERED CARPORT
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• GREAT ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Facing east
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured double wide
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.3% in Ridge Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#736 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $117k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $97,737
• Equity at exit: $139,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $277,506
• Equity at exit: $300,937

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$271 /mo · $3,249/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,453

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $297	-5% $253	+0% $209	+5% $165	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $141	+0% $209	+5% $277	+10% $344
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $248	base $209	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    price $169,900 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    Situated on a spacious corner lot just shy of half an acre, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home offers plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. The property features a covered carport for convenient parking and an enclosed porch, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or creating additional living space to suit your needs. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with four bedrooms, a great room, dining area, and open kitchen - providing flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The generous lot size allows for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements, while the corner lot location offers added privacy and accessibility. Conveniently located in Dade City, this property is less than 1 mile to local shopping, dining, and major roadways (including I-75) while still offering a more relaxed, spacious setting. A great opportunity to make this property your own and take advantage of the space and potential it has to offer. Call today before it's too late!

15. 2026-04-22
    price $169,900

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    Situated on a spacious corner lot just shy of half an acre, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home offers plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. The property features a covered carport for convenient parking and an enclosed porch, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or creating additional living space to suit your needs. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with four bedrooms, a great room, dining area, and open kitchen - providing flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The generous lot size allows for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements, while the corner lot location offers added privacy and accessibility. Conveniently located in Dade City, this property is less than 1 mile to local shopping, dining, and major roadways (including I-75) while still offering a more relaxed, spacious setting. A great opportunity to make this property your own and take advantage of the space and potential it has to offer. Call today before it's too late!

16. 2026-03-21
    listed $184,900 Active
17. 2026-03-20
    listed $184,900 Active 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    Situated on a spacious corner lot just shy of half an acre, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home offers plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. The property features a covered carport for convenient parking and an enclosed porch, perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or creating additional living space to suit your needs. Inside, the home offers a functional layout with four bedrooms, a great room, dining area, and open kitchen - providing flexibility for a variety of living arrangements. The generous lot size allows for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements, while the corner lot location offers added privacy and accessibility. Conveniently located in Dade City, this property is less than 1 mile to local shopping, dining, and major roadways (including I-75) while still offering a more relaxed, spacious setting. A great opportunity to make this property your own and take advantage of the space and potential it has to offer. Call today before it's too late!

18. 2019-11-11
    historical
19. 2019-11-11
    historical
20. 2018-07-12
    soldstatus $117,000
21. 2018-06-28
    soldstatus $117,000
22. 2017-11-09
    listed $112,000
23. 2008-08-15
    listed $113,500
24. 2007-12-26
    listed $129,900
25. 2007-05-11
    soldstatus $30,000
26. 2005-03-30
    soldstatus $12,000
27. 2005-03-17
    soldstatus $24,000
28. 1999-06-30
    soldstatus $2,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,249 · $271/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,249 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$3,249
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,648
• − Management: −$1,648
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24
• After-tax cash flow: $2,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ridge Manor

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #15912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridge Manor, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5758.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $169,900 HCAR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $184,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $184,900 HCAR
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2019-11-11 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2018-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records
• 2018-06-28 Sold (MLS) $117,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-09 Listed $112,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-15 Listed $113,500 HCAR
• 2007-12-26 Listed $129,900 HCAR
• 2007-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $2,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,249 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.