116 Lincoln Rd

Taconic Shores, NY 12516

$350,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,433/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-1,177/mo
• Annual: $-14,129/yr
• Cap rate: 2.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.42%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.41%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (59.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (59.1% below list).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (59.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $158k; list at $350k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.