116 Lincoln Rd · Taconic Shores, NY 12516

$350,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1980 5,662 sqft lot $210/sqft · 33% below area Est $521k · 33% under $125/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Backing up to the Copake Town Park and capturing beautiful Taconic Range mountain views, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,600+ sq ft two-story home offers a wonderful blend of recreation, comfort, and community. Enjoy free summer Saturday night concerts in the park, along with year-round activities including ice skating, ball games, art shows, tractor pulls and more. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a mix of wood floors and carpeting. The kitchen is appointed with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Four bedrooms are on the second floor. There is flexibility for family, guests, or home office needs. There is even a full basement. Located within the Taconic Shores private lake community surrounding Robinson Pond, residents enjoy access to association beaches and a lifestyle centered around paddle boarding, bird watching, swimming, fishing, and small motor boating. A terrific opportunity to enjoy sunrises and sunsets in a country living setting with abundant outdoor amenities. About two hours from NYC with Amtrack and MetroNorth ~ ½ hour away. Catamount Ski Area/Adventure Park is less than 15 minutes away. Priced appropriately.

Key facts

• Association beaches
• Robinson pond
• Full basement

Tags

• TACONIC RANGE MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• ASSOCIATION BEACHES
• ROBINSON POND
• FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (59.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (59.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (59.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $158k; list at $350k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,004 (59.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.42%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 20.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $521,080
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -32.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Island Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,559 (-6%)	12mo	$495,000	$318	58
1024 Lakeview Rd	0.57mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,704 (+2%)	8mo	$700,000	$411	53
132 Lake Shore Dr	0.19mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,501 (-10%)	21mo	$450,000	$300	51
272 Route 7A	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (-2%)	21mo	$260,000	$159	46
1250 Lake View Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-5%)	18mo	$580,000	$366	44
1256 Lakeview Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (-12%)	5mo	$640,000	$436	43
1264 Lakeview Rd	0.61mi	3/— (-1)	1,792 (+8%)	19mo	$475,000	$265	38
224 County Route 7a	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-10%)	24mo	$350,000	$234	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $115,583
• Equity at exit: $315,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $399,256
• Equity at exit: $679,973

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12516

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 20.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,433 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,441/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-1,177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,924

Max offer price $142,004

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $350,000 Pending 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 110 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 109 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,000 Active Under Contract 108 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    historical Active Under Contract 1177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

    Backing up to the Copake Town Park and capturing beautiful Taconic Range mountain views, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,600+ sq ft two-story home offers a wonderful blend of recreation, comfort, and community. Enjoy free summer Saturday night concerts in the park, along with year-round activities including ice skating, ball games, art shows, tractor pulls and more. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a mix of wood floors and carpeting. The kitchen is appointed with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Four bedrooms are on the second floor. There is flexibility for family, guests, or home office needs. There is even a full basement. Located within the Taconic Shores private lake community surrounding Robinson Pond, residents enjoy access to association beaches and a lifestyle centered around paddle boarding, bird watching, swimming, fishing, and small motor boating. A terrific opportunity to enjoy sunrises and sunsets in a country living setting with abundant outdoor amenities. About two hours from NYC with Amtrack and MetroNorth ~ ½ hour away. Catamount Ski Area/Adventure Park is less than 15 minutes away. Priced appropriately.

11. 2026-04-24
    price $350,000 1177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

    Backing up to the Copake Town Park and capturing beautiful Taconic Range mountain views, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,600+ sq ft two-story home offers a wonderful blend of recreation, comfort, and community. Enjoy free summer Saturday night concerts in the park, along with year-round activities including ice skating, ball games, art shows, tractor pulls and more. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a mix of wood floors and carpeting. The kitchen is appointed with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Four bedrooms are on the second floor. There is flexibility for family, guests, or home office needs. There is even a full basement. Located within the Taconic Shores private lake community surrounding Robinson Pond, residents enjoy access to association beaches and a lifestyle centered around paddle boarding, bird watching, swimming, fishing, and small motor boating. A terrific opportunity to enjoy sunrises and sunsets in a country living setting with abundant outdoor amenities. About two hours from NYC with Amtrack and MetroNorth ~ ½ hour away. Catamount Ski Area/Adventure Park is less than 15 minutes away. Priced appropriately.

12. 2026-02-11
    listed $375,000 Active 1177-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

    Backing up to the Copake Town Park and capturing beautiful Taconic Range mountain views, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,600+ sq ft two-story home offers a wonderful blend of recreation, comfort, and community. Enjoy free summer Saturday night concerts in the park, along with year-round activities including ice skating, ball games, art shows, tractor pulls and more. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a mix of wood floors and carpeting. The kitchen is appointed with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Four bedrooms are on the second floor. There is flexibility for family, guests, or home office needs. There is even a full basement. Located within the Taconic Shores private lake community surrounding Robinson Pond, residents enjoy access to association beaches and a lifestyle centered around paddle boarding, bird watching, swimming, fishing, and small motor boating. A terrific opportunity to enjoy sunrises and sunsets in a country living setting with abundant outdoor amenities. About two hours from NYC with Amtrack and MetroNorth ~ ½ hour away. Catamount Ski Area/Adventure Park is less than 15 minutes away. Priced appropriately.

13. 2016-10-06
    soldstatus $158,000
14. 2016-09-16
    soldstatus $158,000 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Gleaming new wood floors, sparkling brand new kitchen with all new Frigidaire appliances and granite countertops, totally redone in 2015, new sheetrock, new wood floors, new carpets, new bathrooms. Just bring your furniture and enjoy this lovely property, backs up to parkland.

15. 2015-09-29
    listed $173,900 277-char remark

    Show marketing remark (277 chars)

    Gleaming new wood floors, sparkling brand new kitchen with all new Frigidaire appliances and granite countertops, totally redone in 2015, new sheetrock, new wood floors, new carpets, new bathrooms. Just bring your furniture and enjoy this lovely property, backs up to parkland.

16. 2014-05-21
    soldstatus $30,000
17. 2014-05-21
    soldstatus $30,000
18. 2014-05-21
    soldstatus $30,000
19. 2014-02-07
    listed $54,900
20. 2014-01-27
    listed $54,900
21. 2013-06-05
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,441 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,178 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,737/yr (+$145/mo · 71.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,441
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$21,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Taconic Shores

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taconic Shores, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,748

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.67%
• Current HPI: 430.1986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $350,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $375,000 HVCRMLS
• 2016-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-16 Sold (MLS) $158,000 HVCRMLS
• 2015-09-29 Listed $173,900 HVCRMLS
• 2014-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-21 Sold (MLS) $30,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-21 Sold (MLS) $30,000 HVCRMLS
• 2014-02-07 Listed $54,900 HVCRMLS
• 2014-01-27 Listed $54,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,441 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.