113 Top Of The Grade Rd

Douglas City, CA 96024

$119,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 213 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,321/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $68/mo
• Annual: $811/yr
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($811/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#755 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Lewiston Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,065 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.