2010 Victoria Ave

Arnold, PA 15068

$39,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,730/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $1,091/mo
• Annual: $13,092/yr
• Cap rate: 39.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.19%
• DSCR: 6.21
• 1% rule: 4.34%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,212 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Kensington-Arnold SD (suburban): math 16% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #483 of 539 in PA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Roy A. Hunt El Sch (math 18% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,174 of 1,518 statewide, top 77%, 607 students, 100% FRL); Valley Jshs (math 13% / reading 27%, grade F, #387 of 437 statewide, top 89%, 869 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 56% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 415 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westmoreland County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant wear and discoloration
• Minor: landscaping — Overgrown grass