2010 Victoria Ave · Arnold, PA 15068

$39,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1925 Fair condition 3,598 sqft lot $30/sqft · 68% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious three-story frame home offering great potential for an owner-occupant or investor. This property features a covered front porch and rear porch, providing additional outdoor living space, along with a private backyard ideal for entertaining, gardening, or recreation. The home is ready for your personal updates and needs TLC to truly shine, making it a fantastic opportunity to add value. With solid bones, classic charm, and plenty of room to customize, this property offers endless possibilities. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Bring your vision and transform this home into something special!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Private backyard
• Shopping

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR PORCH
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,212 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• New Kensington-Arnold SD (suburban): math 16% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #483 of 539 in PA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Roy A. Hunt El Sch (math 18% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,174 of 1,518 statewide, top 77%, 607 students, 100% FRL); Valley Jshs (math 13% / reading 27%, grade F, #387 of 437 statewide, top 89%, 869 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 56% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 415 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.19%
• DSCR: 6.21
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,963
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -68.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1908 Woodmont Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	8mo	$149,900	$116	76
1910 Ridge Ave	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	2mo	$140,000	$100	75
2020 Constitution Blvd	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,215 (-10%)	0mo	$132,500	$109	66
526 North St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,344 (0%)	11mo	$126,000	$94	63
170 Esther Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$205,000	$142	63
201 Esther Ave	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,414 (+5%)	10mo	$199,900	$141	58
1616 Third Ave	0.51mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,400 (+4%)	9mo	$27,000	$19	55
909 Freeport Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,230 (-8%)	1mo	$187,000	$152	54
2024 Kimball Ave	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	10mo	$30,571	$27	50
1006 Edgewood Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,449 (+8%)	2mo	$270,000	$186	46
252 Catalpa St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (+7%)	5mo	$26,500	$18	46
1249 Leishman Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,444 (+7%)	10mo	$30,571	$21	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $61,154
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.10×
• Total profit: $135,232
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15068

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $1,091

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,119	-5% $1,105	+0% $1,091	+5% $1,077	+10% $1,063
Rent	-10% $954	-5% $1,023	+0% $1,091	+5% $1,159	+10% $1,228
Rate	-1.0pp $1,111	-0.5pp $1,101	base $1,091	+0.5pp $1,081	+1.0pp $1,070

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1922 Kenneth Ave New Kensington, PA	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	9d	1	0.16mi
1922 Kenneth Ave New Kensington, PA	5.0	2.0	1800	$2,100	$1.17	0d	1	0.16mi
826 North St New Kensington, PA	4.0	1.5	1250	$1,495	$1.20	0d	1	0.59mi
1330 Woodmont Ave New Kensington, PA	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,100	$0.88	12d	1	0.61mi
300 Craigdell Rd New Kensington, PA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,130	$0.87	0d	1	0.89mi
424 W 7th Ave Unit 2 Tarentum, PA	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,250	$0.77	45d	1	1.10mi
915 Evans St New Kensington, PA	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,295	$1.12	45d	1	1.37mi
1134 Strawn Ave New Kensington, PA	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,500	$1.38	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $39,900 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Contingent 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Contingent 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $39,900 Contingent 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $39,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    price $39,900 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Spacious three-story frame home offering great potential for an owner-occupant or investor. This property features a covered front porch and rear porch, providing additional outdoor living space, along with a private backyard ideal for entertaining, gardening, or recreation. The home is ready for your personal updates and needs TLC to truly shine, making it a fantastic opportunity to add value. With solid bones, classic charm, and plenty of room to customize, this property offers endless possibilities. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Bring your vision and transform this home into something special!

11. 2026-04-14
    listed $49,900 Active 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Spacious three-story frame home offering great potential for an owner-occupant or investor. This property features a covered front porch and rear porch, providing additional outdoor living space, along with a private backyard ideal for entertaining, gardening, or recreation. The home is ready for your personal updates and needs TLC to truly shine, making it a fantastic opportunity to add value. With solid bones, classic charm, and plenty of room to customize, this property offers endless possibilities. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and major roadways. Bring your vision and transform this home into something special!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,761
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $13,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,179
• After-tax cash flow: $9,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This three-story home has fair condition with some exterior wear and overgrown landscaping. It offers great potential for updates and could be transformed into a move-in-ready property with moderate renovations.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and discoloration
• Minor landscaping — Overgrown grass

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both repair siding — Restores exterior appearance and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and discoloration	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown grass	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$15,500–53,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both repair siding — Restores exterior appearance and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Kensington-Arnold SD
• NCES district ID: 4216740
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,386
• Composite: 19.26/100
• National rank: #8805
• State rank: #483 of 539 in PA

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #1212
• US rank: #14318

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arnold, PA
• County: Westmoreland County · 183,777 people
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,203
• Household income: $63,426
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 967.0

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 342,555 people
• By 2030: 331,717 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 304,976 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 277,444 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 224,607 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 171,084 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 8% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Subsaharan African 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+31.3 2012: R+23.7 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.50%
• Current HPI: 305.926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $39,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $49,900 West Penn MLS