0 North Pass Manchac

Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$189,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2016 · Land · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,712/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$984
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-623/mo
• Annual: $-7,470/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-623 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (47.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (9.4% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (47.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $189k implies a 3050% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.1% in Ponchatoula — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.