0 North Pass Manchac · Ponchatoula, LA 70454

$189,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Land · 27 Days on market

Built 2016 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your home away from home! A beautifully solid built waterfront camp tucked along the peaceful waters of North Pass in Manchac, where life slows down and every day feels like a getaway. Accessible only by boat, this one-of-a-kind property offers unmatched privacy and serenity with 180 feet of tranquil waterfront, great for morning coffee with river views and sunset evenings that never disappoint. Designed for both relaxation and entertaining, this 3 bed, 3 bath retreat features A spacious bunk room with 4 double beds. A large game room complete with pool table and dart board for endless fun. An 11x17 screened-in upper porch to enjoy the breeze year-round. An oversized downstairs deck with full granite bar and grilling area. An outdoor shower for the ultimate camp lifestyle experience. Whether you're fishing at sunrise, cruising the waterways, or unwinding with loved ones under the stars, this property delivers the kind of lifestyle you just can't find on land. If you've been dreaming of a true Louisiana waterfront escape, this is it! No showings before 8 am and after 6 pm.

Key facts

• Tranquil waterfront
• Bunk room
• Waterfront camp

Tags

• WATERFRONT CAMP
• UNMATCHED PRIVACY
• TRANQUIL WATERFRONT
• BUNK ROOM
• GAME ROOM
• SCREENED-IN UPPER PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-623 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (47.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (47.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.1% in Ponchatoula — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#91 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $189k implies a 3050% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,919 (47.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-73,778
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.44×
• Total profit: $-128,948
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,712 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,500

Max offer price $98,919

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending 1099-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1099 chars)

   Welcome to your home away from home! A beautifully solid built waterfront camp tucked along the peaceful waters of North Pass in Manchac, where life slows down and every day feels like a getaway. Accessible only by boat, this one-of-a-kind property offers unmatched privacy and serenity with 180 feet of tranquil waterfront, great for morning coffee with river views and sunset evenings that never disappoint. Designed for both relaxation and entertaining, this 3 bed, 3 bath retreat features A spacious bunk room with 4 double beds. A large game room complete with pool table and dart board for endless fun. An 11x17 screened-in upper porch to enjoy the breeze year-round. An oversized downstairs deck with full granite bar and grilling area. An outdoor shower for the ultimate camp lifestyle experience. Whether you're fishing at sunrise, cruising the waterways, or unwinding with loved ones under the stars, this property delivers the kind of lifestyle you just can't find on land. If you've been dreaming of a true Louisiana waterfront escape, this is it! No showings before 8 am and after 6 pm.

2. 2026-04-24
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1099 chars)

   Welcome to your home away from home! A beautifully solid built waterfront camp tucked along the peaceful waters of North Pass in Manchac, where life slows down and every day feels like a getaway. Accessible only by boat, this one-of-a-kind property offers unmatched privacy and serenity with 180 feet of tranquil waterfront, great for morning coffee with river views and sunset evenings that never disappoint. Designed for both relaxation and entertaining, this 3 bed, 3 bath retreat features A spacious bunk room with 4 double beds. A large game room complete with pool table and dart board for endless fun. An 11x17 screened-in upper porch to enjoy the breeze year-round. An oversized downstairs deck with full granite bar and grilling area. An outdoor shower for the ultimate camp lifestyle experience. Whether you're fishing at sunrise, cruising the waterways, or unwinding with loved ones under the stars, this property delivers the kind of lifestyle you just can't find on land. If you've been dreaming of a true Louisiana waterfront escape, this is it! No showings before 8 am and after 6 pm.

3. 2026-03-27
   listed $189,000 Active 1099-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1099 chars)

   Welcome to your home away from home! A beautifully solid built waterfront camp tucked along the peaceful waters of North Pass in Manchac, where life slows down and every day feels like a getaway. Accessible only by boat, this one-of-a-kind property offers unmatched privacy and serenity with 180 feet of tranquil waterfront, great for morning coffee with river views and sunset evenings that never disappoint. Designed for both relaxation and entertaining, this 3 bed, 3 bath retreat features A spacious bunk room with 4 double beds. A large game room complete with pool table and dart board for endless fun. An 11x17 screened-in upper porch to enjoy the breeze year-round. An oversized downstairs deck with full granite bar and grilling area. An outdoor shower for the ultimate camp lifestyle experience. Whether you're fishing at sunrise, cruising the waterways, or unwinding with loved ones under the stars, this property delivers the kind of lifestyle you just can't find on land. If you've been dreaming of a true Louisiana waterfront escape, this is it! No showings before 8 am and after 6 pm.

4. 2026-03-27
   listed $189,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1099 chars)

   Welcome to your home away from home! A beautifully solid built waterfront camp tucked along the peaceful waters of North Pass in Manchac, where life slows down and every day feels like a getaway. Accessible only by boat, this one-of-a-kind property offers unmatched privacy and serenity with 180 feet of tranquil waterfront, great for morning coffee with river views and sunset evenings that never disappoint. Designed for both relaxation and entertaining, this 3 bed, 3 bath retreat features A spacious bunk room with 4 double beds. A large game room complete with pool table and dart board for endless fun. An 11x17 screened-in upper porch to enjoy the breeze year-round. An oversized downstairs deck with full granite bar and grilling area. An outdoor shower for the ultimate camp lifestyle experience. Whether you're fishing at sunrise, cruising the waterways, or unwinding with loved ones under the stars, this property delivers the kind of lifestyle you just can't find on land. If you've been dreaming of a true Louisiana waterfront escape, this is it! No showings before 8 am and after 6 pm.

5. 2002-08-20
   soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$8,973
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$10,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,552
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Ponchatoula

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #9755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 34,564
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+3050.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — GSREIN
• 2026-03-27 Listed $189,000 GSREIN
• 2026-03-27 Listed $189,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2002-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $55 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.