10123 Idlebrook Dr

Tuckahoe, VA 23238

$495,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,037 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,596/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$755
• Net cashflow: $-269/mo
• Annual: $-3,232/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $447k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $360k (27.3% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $360k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in VA, #4,108 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pemberton Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 354 students, 26% FRL); Quioccasin Middle (math 36% / reading 52%, grade D, #282 of 342 statewide, top 83%, 1,040 students, 89% FRL); Mills E. Godwin High (math 67% / reading 91%, grade A-, #71 of 319 statewide, top 23%, 1,773 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $298k; list at $495k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in Tuckahoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.