10123 Idlebrook Dr · Tuckahoe, VA 23238

$495,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1979 0.46 ac lot Est $495k · at est. $15/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sparkling 4 bedroom colonial in Raintree situated on a private lot that backs up to natural area. Large living room with formal dining room and open family room with wood-burning fireplace. Updated eat-in kitchen with granite counters, custom cabinets with soft-closing drawers, stainless steel appliances including gas cooking. Large master suite with easy attic access. 3 additional bedrooms. Tankless water heater, whole house surge suppressor, whole house humidifier. Large private rear yard-nearly half acre, with fire pit, storage shed and second shed with electricity. Easy access to 64/288/295

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing broker: River Fox Realty; Listing agent: Rebecca Horton (804-873-9213); Last updated Apr 10, 2026
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Exterior

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• Home design: Single-family home at 10123 Idlebrook Dr, Henrico, VA 23238
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Interior

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What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $495k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($280/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $397k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in Tuckahoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in VA, #4,108 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living D, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pemberton Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 354 students, 26% FRL); Quioccasin Middle (math 36% / reading 52%, grade D, #282 of 342 statewide, top 83%, 1,040 students, 89% FRL); Mills E. Godwin High (math 67% / reading 91%, grade A-, #71 of 319 statewide, top 23%, 1,773 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,967/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 1172% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $298k; list at $495k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $396,682 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $494,991
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10123 Idlebrook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,037 (0%)	1mo	$495,000	$243	99
10102 Windsong Ter	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,184 (+7%)	8mo	$535,000	$245	65
9609 Della Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-2%)	9mo	$475,000	$238	58
9632 Woodstream Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,106 (+3%)	10mo	$577,000	$274	57
10219 Windbluff Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,292 (+12%)	3mo	$600,000	$262	56
9520 Oldhouse Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,308 (+13%)	2mo	$532,000	$231	52
1605 Mara Dr	0.44mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,238 (+10%)	7mo	$440,000	$197	50
10405 Falconbridge Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,256 (+11%)	8mo	$585,000	$259	46
1905 Hickoryridge Rd	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,280 (+12%)	0mo	$499,500	$219	44
9504 Downing St	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,324 (+14%)	7mo	$515,000	$222	42
1604 Derek Ln	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,304 (+13%)	4mo	$476,500	$207	41
9607 Woodstream Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,818 (-11%)	8mo	$470,000	$259	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-82,493
• Equity at exit: $73,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-85,106
• Equity at exit: $42,799

Cash invested: $138,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23238

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,520/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$833
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,937

Max offer price $495,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $163	+0% $23	+5% $-117	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-133	+0% $23	+5% $180	+10% $337
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $149	base $23	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,750
• Closing costs: $14,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9621 Peppertree Dr Henrico, VA	5.0	2.5	2352	$5,850	$2.49	45d	1	0.22mi
100 Chase Gayton Dr Henrico, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$2,278	$2.09	3d	22	0.44mi
1303 Barnard Dr Henrico, VA	5.0	2.0	1950	$3,200	$1.64	16d	1	1.02mi
10954 Greenaire Pl Henrico, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,795	$1.28	19d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectric

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $495,000 Active
3. 2026-04-10
   historical $495,000
4. 2019-01-15
   soldstatus $298,500
5. 2019-01-14
   soldstatus $298,500 Closed 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   Sparkling 4 bedroom colonial in Raintree situated on a private lot that backs up to natural area. Large living room with formal dining room and open family room with wood-burning fireplace. Updated eat-in kitchen with granite counters, custom cabinets with soft-closing drawers, stainless steel appliances including gas cooking. Large master suite with easy attic access. 3 additional bedrooms. Tankless water heater, whole house surge suppressor, whole house humidifier. Large private rear yard-nearly half acre, with fire pit, storage shed and second shed with electricity. Easy access to 64/288/295

6. 2018-12-13
   status Pending 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   Sparkling 4 bedroom colonial in Raintree situated on a private lot that backs up to natural area. Large living room with formal dining room and open family room with wood-burning fireplace. Updated eat-in kitchen with granite counters, custom cabinets with soft-closing drawers, stainless steel appliances including gas cooking. Large master suite with easy attic access. 3 additional bedrooms. Tankless water heater, whole house surge suppressor, whole house humidifier. Large private rear yard-nearly half acre, with fire pit, storage shed and second shed with electricity. Easy access to 64/288/295

7. 2018-12-01
   listed $300,000 Active 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   Sparkling 4 bedroom colonial in Raintree situated on a private lot that backs up to natural area. Large living room with formal dining room and open family room with wood-burning fireplace. Updated eat-in kitchen with granite counters, custom cabinets with soft-closing drawers, stainless steel appliances including gas cooking. Large master suite with easy attic access. 3 additional bedrooms. Tankless water heater, whole house surge suppressor, whole house humidifier. Large private rear yard-nearly half acre, with fire pit, storage shed and second shed with electricity. Easy access to 64/288/295

8. 1991-12-01
   soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,520 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,059 · $338/mo
• Expected delta: +$539/yr (+$45/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,728
• − Property taxes: −$3,520
• − Insurance: −$2,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,808
• − Management: −$3,808
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$14,400
• Taxable loss: −$8,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,996
• After-tax cash flow: $2,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tuckahoe

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #4108

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living D Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• City population: 26,050
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 26,050
• Household income: $101,523
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1172.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.91%
• Current HPI: 388.2419
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+371.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $495,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Coming Soon $495,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $298,500 Public Records
• 2019-01-14 Sold (MLS) $298,500 CVRMLS
• 2018-12-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2018-12-01 Listed $300,000 CVRMLS
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,520 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.