3128 Pinebrook Dr

Arnold, MO 63010

$229,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1983 · Other · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,782/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-81/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-81/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (22.5% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $178k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard Simpson Elem. (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 373 students, 24% FRL); Seckman Sr. High (math 22% / reading 64%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 1,793 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.