3128 Pinebrook Dr · Arnold, MO 63010

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Other public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1983 5,867 sqft lot $266/sqft · 34% above area Est $247k · 7% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home being sold as-is. For comp purposes only

Key facts

• 5,867 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,238 estimated (864 above grade, 374 below grade)
• HOA & community: HOA present (city and village), $150 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; On-street parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected (single phase); Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Attached property; One level
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Back yard; Panel doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Built-in gas oven; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes approximately 12x11, 10x9, and 10x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/dining room combo; Partially finished basement; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-81/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.7% in Arnold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#396 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fox C-6 (suburban): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #103 of 324 in MO (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard Simpson Elem. (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 373 students, 24% FRL); Seckman Sr. High (math 22% / reading 64%, grade F, #211 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 1,793 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,207 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,623
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -6.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-37,766
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,768
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63010

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,203/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $228,701

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $58	+0% $-7	+5% $-72	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-77	+0% $-7	+5% $64	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $52	base $-7	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2901 Highland House Villas Ct Arnold, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	0d	1	0.15mi
3409 5 Oaks Ct Arnold, MO	4.0	2.5	1080	$2,145	$1.99	0d	1	0.73mi
3865 Crest Circle Dr Arnold, MO	2.0	1.5	830	$1,300	$1.57	0d	1	0.80mi
2714 Cherry Brook Dr Arnold, MO	3.0	3.0	1025	$2,000	$1.95	45d	1	0.93mi
1778 Richardson Rd Arnold, MO	2.0	2.0	996	$1,250	$1.26	0d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $229,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-15
   price $229,900 11-char remark

   Show marketing remark (46 chars)

   Home being sold as-is. For comp purposes only

4. 2026-05-15
   historical $219,900 11-char remark

   Show marketing remark (46 chars)

   Home being sold as-is. For comp purposes only

5. 2026-05-15
   listed $180,000 Active 46-char remark

   Show marketing remark (46 chars)

   Home being sold as-is. For comp purposes only

6. 2026-05-01
   soldstatus Closed 46-char remark

   Show marketing remark (46 chars)

   Home being sold as-is. For comp purposes only

7. 2010-04-22
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,203 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,230 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,028/yr (+$86/mo · 85.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,203
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$4,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$987
• After-tax cash flow: $905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fox C-6
• NCES district ID: 2912300
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,849
• Composite: 37.54/100
• National rank: #4392
• State rank: #103 of 324 in MO

Livability — Arnold

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #17082

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 108,544 people
• City population: 34,478
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 34,478
• Household income: $79,784
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 422.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% American 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.53%
• Current HPI: 190.586
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+27.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-27 Listed $229,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $229,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $219,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $180,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-01 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,203 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.