Lancia's Lincoln III Plan

Fort Wayne, IN 46818

$230,200F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,734 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 303 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,170/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax + insurance: −$514
• HOA: −$41
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-459/mo
• Annual: $-5,505/yr
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.37%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $86,371

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-459 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (5.7% below list).
• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Fort Wayne Community Schools (urban): math 22% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #263 of 301 in IN (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington Center Elementary Sch (math 33% / reading 21%, grade F, #737 of 994 statewide, top 76%, 517 students, 62% FRL); Shawnee Middle School (math 11% / reading 22%, grade F, #287 of 330 statewide, top 88%, 675 students, 65% FRL); Northrop High School (math 25% / reading 62%, grade F, #191 of 369 statewide, top 52%, 2,136 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?