Lancia's Lincoln III Plan · Fort Wayne, IN 46818

$230,200

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily · 303 Days on market

Poor condition $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Lincoln III showcases a U-shaped Kitchen open to the Nook with a corner pantry. Large separate Great Room. Separate Laundry Room off Garage. 4 Bedrooms upstairs with the option of transforming the downstairs Office or Bonus Room into a 5th Bedroom with an upgrade of a closet or suite with a full bath! * Base price does not include land

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 303 days

🏗️ New construction. The $230,200 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,469.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-459 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in IN, #676 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Fort Wayne Community Schools (urban): math 22% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #263 of 301 in IN (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington Center Elementary Sch (math 33% / reading 21%, grade F, #737 of 994 statewide, top 76%, 517 students, 62% FRL); Shawnee Middle School (math 11% / reading 22%, grade F, #287 of 330 statewide, top 88%, 675 students, 65% FRL); Northrop High School (math 25% / reading 62%, grade F, #191 of 369 statewide, top 52%, 2,136 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,861 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (576 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allen County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,576 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.37%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,469
• List price: $230,200
• Delta: -25.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3856 Bradley Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,771 (+2%)	9mo	$299,900	$169	78
4106 Shadowood Lakes Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-1%)	5mo	$347,807	$203	78
3802 Bradley Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,771 (+2%)	10mo	$334,900	$189	78
3705 Beck Ct	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,771 (+2%)	3mo	$319,900	$181	76
8168 Carlie Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,771 (+2%)	10mo	$304,115	$172	76
3557 Beck Ct	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,771 (+2%)	1mo	$312,430	$176	76
4051 Shadowood Lakes Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,613 (-7%)	3mo	$314,000	$195	73
4141 Shadowood Lakes Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (-13%)	3mo	$319,900	$212	60
3593 Beck Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,501 (-13%)	3mo	$294,755	$196	55
4104 Ravens Cove Run	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-12%)	1mo	$264,900	$173	45
7513 Haida Way	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,531 (-12%)	1mo	$265,000	$173	42
7520 Haida Way	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,580 (-9%)	9mo	$265,000	$168	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-68,540
• Equity at exit: $45,994

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-49,175
• Equity at exit: $26,671

Cash invested: $86,371 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46818

• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,627/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-459

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,750

Max offer price $242,091

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-352	+0% $-459	+5% $-565	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-630	-5% $-544	+0% $-459	+5% $-373	+10% $-287
Rate	-1.0pp $-303	-0.5pp $-380	base $-459	+0.5pp $-539	+1.0pp $-620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,117
• Closing costs: $9,254
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3782 Thunderhawk Pass Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,095	$1.43	15d	5	0.49mi
13244 Etta DR Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.5	1330	$1,700	$1.28	45d	1	0.89mi
7211 Carrington Blvd Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,399	$0.89	15d	1	0.99mi
2316 Lima Ln Fort Wayne, IN	3.0	1.5	1160	$2,150	$1.85	15d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $230,200 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,200 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,200 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,200 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,200 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,200 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,200 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,200 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,200 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,200 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,200 Active 285 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $230,200 Active 284 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,700 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,700 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,700 Active 281 DOM
16. 2026-02-09
    price $225,700 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Lincoln III showcases a U-shaped Kitchen open to the Nook with a corner pantry. Large separate Great Room. Separate Laundry Room off Garage. 4 Bedrooms upstairs with the option of transforming the downstairs Office or Bonus Room into a 5th Bedroom with an upgrade of a closet or suite with a full bath! * Base price does not include land

17. 2025-08-22
    listed $224,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    THIS IS A SAMPLE PLAN - THIS IS NOT A HOME FOR SALE. Lancia's Lincoln III showcases a U-shaped Kitchen open to the Nook with a corner pantry. Large separate Great Room. Separate Laundry Room off Garage. 4 Bedrooms upstairs with the option of transforming the downstairs Office or Bonus Room into a 5th Bedroom with an upgrade of a closet or suite with a full bath! * Base price does not include land

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,279
• − Property taxes: −$4,627
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$8,974
• Taxable loss: −$11,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,651
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

No visible details of the home's condition or features, rendering an assessment impossible. The property is a blank slate with no visible structure or interior.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Wayne Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1803630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,951
• Composite: 21.68/100
• National rank: #8275
• State rank: #263 of 301 in IN

Livability — Fort Wayne

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #676

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Allen County · 326,813 people
• City population: 326,813
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• Population (ZIP): 21,954
• Household income: $81,066
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (Allen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 394,020 people
• By 2030: 405,128 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 423,476 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 435,137 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 450,293 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 424,101 · +7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allen

• 2024 margin: R (+12.5) · D 42.9% · R 55.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.5 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.71%
• Current HPI: 228.1539
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.64%
• Metro: Fort Wayne, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $225,700 Zillow
• 2025-08-22 Listed $224,000 Zillow