9 Bear Creek Rd

Kirby, AR 71921

$150,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $-304/mo
• Annual: $-3,648/yr
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.69%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (38.2% below list).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#233 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Kirby School District (rural): math 32% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #153 of 238 in AR (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kirby Elementary School (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #254 of 454 statewide, top 59%, 250 students, 100% FRL); Kirby High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #187 of 292 statewide, top 70%, 198 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.
• Pike County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $150k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?