9 Bear Creek Rd · Kirby, AR 71921

$150,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1970 2.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located near Lake Greeson and area ATV trails, this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home offers 1,072 sq ft of comfortable living space on approximately 2.4 +/- acres. The property is well-equipped for outdoor living, hobbies, and storage with a 10x41 add-on, 10x16 back deck, and an impressive 30x50 patio with trailer cover. Additional improvements include a 30x62 concrete pad, 20x30 carport, 14x30 wired shop, pond, and even a chicken coop — providing plenty of flexibility for a variety of uses. For buyers seeking a move-in-ready setup, a 2017 Solitude by Grand Design (40 ft with 5 slides) is included. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or basecamp near the lake and trails, this property offers space and versatility in a great location.

Key facts

• 10x16 back deck
• 30x62 concrete pad
• 14x30 wired shop

Tags

• 10X41 ADD-ON
• 10X16 BACK DECK
• 30X50 PATIO
• 30X62 CONCRETE PAD
• 20X30 CARPORT
• 14X30 WIRED SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (29.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#233 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Kirby School District (rural): math 32% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #153 of 238 in AR (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kirby Elementary School (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #254 of 454 statewide, top 59%, 250 students, 100% FRL); Kirby High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #187 of 292 statewide, top 70%, 198 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $150k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,738 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.69%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $22,660
• Equity at exit: $92,912

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $82,192
• Equity at exit: $167,308

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71921

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $-304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $106,013

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-200	-5% $-252	+0% $-304	+5% $-356	+10% $-408
Rent	-10% $-377	-5% $-341	+0% $-304	+5% $-267	+10% $-231
Rate	-1.0pp $-228	-0.5pp $-266	base $-304	+0.5pp $-343	+1.0pp $-382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 93 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    price $150,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Conveniently located near Lake Greeson and area ATV trails, this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home offers 1,072 sq ft of comfortable living space on approximately 2.4 +/- acres. The property is well-equipped for outdoor living, hobbies, and storage with a 10x41 add-on, 10x16 back deck, and an impressive 30x50 patio with trailer cover. Additional improvements include a 30x62 concrete pad, 20x30 carport, 14x30 wired shop, pond, and even a chicken coop — providing plenty of flexibility for a variety of uses. For buyers seeking a move-in-ready setup, a 2017 Solitude by Grand Design (40 ft with 5 slides) is included. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or basecamp near the lake and trails, this property offers space and versatility in a great location.

19. 2026-05-08
    price $150,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Conveniently located near Lake Greeson and area ATV trails, this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home offers 1,072 sq ft of comfortable living space on approximately 2.4 +/- acres. The property is well-equipped for outdoor living, hobbies, and storage with a 10x41 add-on, 10x16 back deck, and an impressive 30x50 patio with trailer cover. Additional improvements include a 30x62 concrete pad, 20x30 carport, 14x30 wired shop, pond, and even a chicken coop — providing plenty of flexibility for a variety of uses. For buyers seeking a move-in-ready setup, a 2017 Solitude by Grand Design (40 ft with 5 slides) is included. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or basecamp near the lake and trails, this property offers space and versatility in a great location.

20. 2026-02-27
    listed $169,000 Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Conveniently located near Lake Greeson and area ATV trails, this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home offers 1,072 sq ft of comfortable living space on approximately 2.4 +/- acres. The property is well-equipped for outdoor living, hobbies, and storage with a 10x41 add-on, 10x16 back deck, and an impressive 30x50 patio with trailer cover. Additional improvements include a 30x62 concrete pad, 20x30 carport, 14x30 wired shop, pond, and even a chicken coop — providing plenty of flexibility for a variety of uses. For buyers seeking a move-in-ready setup, a 2017 Solitude by Grand Design (40 ft with 5 slides) is included. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or basecamp near the lake and trails, this property offers space and versatility in a great location.

21. 2026-02-23
    listed $169,000 New Listing 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Conveniently located near Lake Greeson and area ATV trails, this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home offers 1,072 sq ft of comfortable living space on approximately 2.4 +/- acres. The property is well-equipped for outdoor living, hobbies, and storage with a 10x41 add-on, 10x16 back deck, and an impressive 30x50 patio with trailer cover. Additional improvements include a 30x62 concrete pad, 20x30 carport, 14x30 wired shop, pond, and even a chicken coop — providing plenty of flexibility for a variety of uses. For buyers seeking a move-in-ready setup, a 2017 Solitude by Grand Design (40 ft with 5 slides) is included. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or basecamp near the lake and trails, this property offers space and versatility in a great location.

22. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $55,000
23. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $55,000
24. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $55,000
25. 2020-09-30
    listed $66,000
26. 2020-09-28
    listed $66,000
27. 2018-08-21
    soldstatus $13,500
28. 2011-11-10
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$890
• − Management: −$890
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$6,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,540
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kirby School District
• NCES district ID: 0508490
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,353
• Composite: 25.33/100
• National rank: #7479
• State rank: #153 of 238 in AR

Livability — Kirby

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #17477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kirby, AR
• Population (ZIP): 3,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,158 people
• By 2030: 9,681 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 8,640 · -14.9%
• By 2050: 7,500 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 4,897 · -51.8%
• By 2100: 2,911 · -71.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 12.8% · R 86.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+62.3 2012: R+52.7 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.85%
• Current HPI: 300.7988
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+1053.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $150,000 CARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $150,000 HSBOR
• 2026-02-27 Listed $169,000 HSBOR
• 2026-02-23 Listed $169,000 CARMLS
• 2020-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CARMLS
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $55,000 HSBOR
• 2020-09-30 Listed $66,000 HSBOR
• 2020-09-28 Listed $66,000 CARMLS
• 2018-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records
• 2011-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $187 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.