7604 Red Arrow Hwy #149

Paw Paw Lake, MI 49098

$84,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,859/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax + insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $888/mo
• Annual: $10,658/yr
• Cap rate: 18.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.31%
• DSCR: 3.02
• 1% rule: 2.21%
• Cash to close: $23,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $888 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#420 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Watervliet School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #260 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 2.5% in Paw Paw Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — visible wear
• Major: exterior siding — light siding, visible wear