7604 Red Arrow Hwy #149 · Paw Paw Lake, MI 49098

$84,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured · 95 Days on market

Built 2015 Fair condition $65/sqft · at area comps Est $84k · at est. ↓ 1% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-maintained 2015 Hart model offers 1,296 sq ft of comfortable living space with an open floor plan, modern features, and a quiet setting within a peaceful mobile home community. The home includes 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing a spacious layout. The property comes fully equipped with all appliances, including kitchen appliances and laundry units, making move-in simple and convenient. The title has no lien, and the owner has already completed an appraisal for added peace of mind. Home can be financed. Professionally cleaned Prior to new owners' arrival. Lot rent is $685 MUST be approved by park prior to closing

Key facts

• Built 2015
• Listed 95 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $888 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 2.5% in Paw Paw Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#420 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Watervliet School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #260 of 540 in MI (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $581 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $76,440 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.31%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,359
• List price: $84,000
• Delta: -0.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7604 Red Arrow Hwy #158	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	8mo	$94,000	$65	73
7604 Red Arrow Hwy Lot 129	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-6%)	14mo	$62,500	$51	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $42,982
• Equity at exit: $12,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $110,379
• Equity at exit: $7,263

Cash invested: $23,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49098

• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$441
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $888

Break-even live

Break-even rent $735

Max offer price $84,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $946	-5% $917	+0% $888	+5% $859	+10% $830
Rent	-10% $741	-5% $815	+0% $888	+5% $962	+10% $1,035
Rate	-1.0pp $930	-0.5pp $909	base $888	+0.5pp $866	+1.0pp $844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,000
• Closing costs: $2,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7604 Red Arrow Hwy Watervliet, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1078	$1,319	$1.22	44d	1	0.17mi
4020 Sumner Dr Watervliet, MI	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,395	$1.37	44d	1	0.21mi
3882 Watertown Dr Watervliet, MI	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,195	$1.25	44d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $84,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,000 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,000 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    price $84,000 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    This well-maintained 2015 Hart model offers 1,296 sq ft of comfortable living space with an open floor plan, modern features, and a quiet setting within a peaceful mobile home community. The home includes 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing a spacious layout. The property comes fully equipped with all appliances, including kitchen appliances and laundry units, making move-in simple and convenient. The title has no lien, and the owner has already completed an appraisal for added peace of mind. Home can be financed. Professionally cleaned Prior to new owners' arrival. Lot rent is $685 MUST be approved by park prior to closing

18. 2026-05-09
    price $84,000 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    This well-maintained 2015 Hart model offers 1,296 sq ft of comfortable living space with an open floor plan, modern features, and a quiet setting within a peaceful mobile home community. The home includes 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing a spacious layout. The property comes fully equipped with all appliances, including kitchen appliances and laundry units, making move-in simple and convenient. The title has no lien, and the owner has already completed an appraisal for added peace of mind. Home can be financed. Professionally cleaned Prior to new owners' arrival. Lot rent is $685 MUST be approved by park prior to closing

19. 2026-05-09
    price $84,000

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    This well-maintained 2015 Hart model offers 1,296 sq ft of comfortable living space with an open floor plan, modern features, and a quiet setting within a peaceful mobile home community. The home includes 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing a spacious layout. The property comes fully equipped with all appliances, including kitchen appliances and laundry units, making move-in simple and convenient. The title has no lien, and the owner has already completed an appraisal for added peace of mind. Home can be financed. Professionally cleaned Prior to new owners' arrival. Lot rent is $685 MUST be approved by park prior to closing

20. 2026-03-04
    listed $85,000 Active 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    This well-maintained 2015 Hart model offers 1,296 sq ft of comfortable living space with an open floor plan, modern features, and a quiet setting within a peaceful mobile home community. The home includes 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing a spacious layout. The property comes fully equipped with all appliances, including kitchen appliances and laundry units, making move-in simple and convenient. The title has no lien, and the owner has already completed an appraisal for added peace of mind. Home can be financed. Professionally cleaned Prior to new owners' arrival. Lot rent is $685 MUST be approved by park prior to closing

21. 2026-03-04
    listed $85,000 Active 638-char remark

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    This well-maintained 2015 Hart model offers 1,296 sq ft of comfortable living space with an open floor plan, modern features, and a quiet setting within a peaceful mobile home community. The home includes 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing a spacious layout. The property comes fully equipped with all appliances, including kitchen appliances and laundry units, making move-in simple and convenient. The title has no lien, and the owner has already completed an appraisal for added peace of mind. Home can be financed. Professionally cleaned Prior to new owners' arrival. Lot rent is $685 MUST be approved by park prior to closing

22. 2026-03-04
    listed $85,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (638 chars)

    This well-maintained 2015 Hart model offers 1,296 sq ft of comfortable living space with an open floor plan, modern features, and a quiet setting within a peaceful mobile home community. The home includes 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing a spacious layout. The property comes fully equipped with all appliances, including kitchen appliances and laundry units, making move-in simple and convenient. The title has no lien, and the owner has already completed an appraisal for added peace of mind. Home can be financed. Professionally cleaned Prior to new owners' arrival. Lot rent is $685 MUST be approved by park prior to closing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,705
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$420
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$2,444
• Taxable income: $9,910
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,378
• After-tax cash flow: $8,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and is move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — visible wear
• Major exterior siding — light siding, visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — improves aesthetics and increases value
• Both repair roof and siding — addresses major issues and improves safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · light siding, visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpet with hardwood — improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both repair roof and siding — addresses major issues and improves safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watervliet School District
• NCES district ID: 2635460
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,249
• Composite: 31.22/100
• National rank: #6034
• State rank: #260 of 540 in MI

Livability — Paw Paw Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #11496

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,791

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.00%
• Current HPI: 208.2105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $84,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $84,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $84,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $85,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-04 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS