1172 Main St

Fayette, MS 39069

$40,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $522/mo
• Annual: $6,265/yr
• Cap rate: 21.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.94%
• DSCR: 3.49
• 1% rule: 2.85%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $629 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#245 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County School District (rural): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #119 of 130 in MS (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 98% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP.
• Jefferson County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.