939 S Valley View Rd Unit 10

Talent, OR 97520

$63,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,124/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$330
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $1,243/mo
• Annual: $14,914/yr
• Cap rate: 29.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.55%
• DSCR: 4.76
• 1% rule: 3.37%
• Cash to close: $17,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $63k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $63k).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $436 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#95 in OR, #4,794 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, crime B+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities D-.
• Ashland SD 5 (suburban): math 59% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #5 of 183 in OR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 30.0% vs local median 2.8% in Talent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.