25280 SW Deer Ave

Lake Mystic, FL 32321

$70,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,044/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $402/mo
• Annual: $4,826/yr
• Cap rate: 13.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.62%
• DSCR: 2.10
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#852 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Liberty (rural): math 55% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #21 of 73 in FL (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. R. Tolar K-8 School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 499 students, 46% FRL); Liberty County High School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #109 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 341 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.