25280 SW Deer Ave · Lake Mystic, FL 32321

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1990 9,975 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling all hunters and outdoor enthusiasts! This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile home is the perfect hunting camp located in a community within the Apalachicola National Forest dog hunt area. Features include a durable metal roof, a screened-in front porch, and a back deck—great for hanging out, cleaning game, or entertaining after a hunt. The home does need some work, offering a great opportunity to make it your own. Surrounded by some of North Florida's best public hunting land, this property makes an ideal and affordable base camp.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Back deck
• 9,975 sq ft lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• SCREENED-IN FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Oversized parking; Total 5 parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; New construction; Corner lot; County road frontage
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Screened, enclosed porch; Back yard fencing; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Pantry

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#852 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Liberty (rural): math 55% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #21 of 73 in FL (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. R. Tolar K-8 School (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #855 of 2,144 statewide, top 41%, 499 students, 46% FRL); Liberty County High School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #109 of 667 statewide, top 17%, 341 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.62%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $39,218
• Equity at exit: $37,000

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $97,658
• Equity at exit: $61,752

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32321

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $313/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $535

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $442	-5% $422	+0% $402	+5% $382	+10% $363
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $361	+0% $402	+5% $443	+10% $485
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $420	base $402	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $70,000 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-01-24
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $313 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $581 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$268/yr (+$22/mo · 85.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$313
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$936
• After-tax cash flow: $3,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty
• NCES district ID: 1201170
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,647
• Composite: 46.26/100
• National rank: #2482
• State rank: #21 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Mystic

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #852
• US rank: #21771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,792

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,331 people
• By 2030: 8,335 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 8,300 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 8,259 · -0.9%
• By 2075: 7,624 · -8.5%
• By 2100: 6,041 · -27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+60.4 2016: R+57.4 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.37%
• Current HPI: 217.9807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-24 Listed $70,000 RAFGC

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $313 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.