316 W Railroad St

Lumber City, PA 17084

$112,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Pending · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $983/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax + insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $411/yr
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $31,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $112k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($411/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (12.2% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,275 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Indian Valley El Sch (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 368 students, 55% FRL); Mifflin Co Ms (math 16% / reading 51%, grade F, #342 of 512 statewide, top 67%, 689 students, 59% FRL); Mifflin Co Hs (math 76% / reading 24%, grade D+, #133 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 1,086 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.