316 W Railroad St · Lumber City, PA 17084

$112,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Other public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1950 7,840 sqft lot $117/sqft · 30% below area Est $161k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this easy living home in Reedsville. Situated in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to 322 and downtown Reedsville. The home features a nice living room, big eat in kitchen and half bath on first floor along with laundry. The second floor has 2 large bedrooms and a full bathroom with a large storage closet. Basement access from inside and out, a covered front porch and a rear patio. The back yard features raised garden beds, a storage shed and mountain views.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large storage closet
• Big eat in kitchen

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO 322
• BIG EAT IN KITCHEN
• LARGE STORAGE CLOSET
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($411/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,275 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Indian Valley El Sch (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 368 students, 55% FRL); Mifflin Co Ms (math 16% / reading 51%, grade F, #342 of 512 statewide, top 67%, 689 students, 59% FRL); Mifflin Co Hs (math 76% / reading 24%, grade D+, #133 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 1,086 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,336 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,761
• List price: $112,000
• Delta: -30.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-15,973
• Equity at exit: $16,700

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-11,120
• Equity at exit: $9,684

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17084

• Home prices YoY: -11.0%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $112,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $66	+0% $34	+5% $3	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-43	-5% $-5	+0% $34	+5% $73	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $63	base $34	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,000
• Closing costs: $3,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $112,000 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Welcome to this easy living home in Reedsville. Situated in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to 322 and downtown Reedsville. The home features a nice living room, big eat in kitchen and half bath on first floor along with laundry. The second floor has 2 large bedrooms and a full bathroom with a large storage closet. Basement access from inside and out, a covered front porch and a rear patio. The back yard features raised garden beds, a storage shed and mountain views.

2. 2026-03-19
   price $117,500 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Welcome to this easy living home in Reedsville. Situated in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to 322 and downtown Reedsville. The home features a nice living room, big eat in kitchen and half bath on first floor along with laundry. The second floor has 2 large bedrooms and a full bathroom with a large storage closet. Basement access from inside and out, a covered front porch and a rear patio. The back yard features raised garden beds, a storage shed and mountain views.

3. 2026-02-23
   price $122,500 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Welcome to this easy living home in Reedsville. Situated in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to 322 and downtown Reedsville. The home features a nice living room, big eat in kitchen and half bath on first floor along with laundry. The second floor has 2 large bedrooms and a full bathroom with a large storage closet. Basement access from inside and out, a covered front porch and a rear patio. The back yard features raised garden beds, a storage shed and mountain views.

4. 2026-01-27
   listed $129,900 Active 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Welcome to this easy living home in Reedsville. Situated in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to 322 and downtown Reedsville. The home features a nice living room, big eat in kitchen and half bath on first floor along with laundry. The second floor has 2 large bedrooms and a full bathroom with a large storage closet. Basement access from inside and out, a covered front porch and a rear patio. The back yard features raised garden beds, a storage shed and mountain views.

5. 2022-07-12
   soldstatus $75,000
6. 2022-07-07
   soldstatus $75,000 186-char remark

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   Nice 2 bedroom home with privacy. 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath on 2nd floor, living room, large eat in kitchen, laundry, & half bath on first floor. Covered front porch and a rear patio.

7. 2022-05-23
   soldstatus $50,000
8. 2022-05-11
   listed $75,000 186-char remark

   Show marketing remark (186 chars)

   Nice 2 bedroom home with privacy. 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath on 2nd floor, living room, large eat in kitchen, laundry, & half bath on first floor. Covered front porch and a rear patio.

9. 2015-11-13
   soldstatus $40,200
10. 2015-11-10
    soldstatus $40,200
11. 2015-05-06
    listed $45,000
12. 2010-10-27
    soldstatus $40,000
13. 2010-10-26
    soldstatus $40,000
14. 2010-07-26
    listed $44,500
15. 2010-04-21
    historical
16. 2010-04-21
    listed $49,900
17. 2009-09-01
    soldstatus $17,750
18. 2009-03-10
    listed $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,274
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$944
• − Management: −$944
• − Depreciation: −$3,258
• Taxable loss: −$1,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$356
• After-tax cash flow: $767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mifflin County SD
• NCES district ID: 4215290
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,718
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5755
• State rank: #380 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lumber City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1275
• US rank: #15399

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lumber City, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,665

Population outlook (Mifflin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,611 people
• By 2030: 43,212 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 40,197 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 36,813 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 28,833 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 20,296 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 17% Iranian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · German/W. Germanic 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Mifflin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.4) · D 21.4% · R 77.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -56.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.4 2020: R+56.1 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.02%
• Current HPI: 193.6302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+462.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $112,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $117,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $122,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-07 Sold (MLS) $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-11 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $40,200 Public Records
• 2015-11-10 Sold (MLS) $40,200 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-05-06 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-26 Sold (MLS) $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-26 Listed $44,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-21 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-09-01 Sold (MLS) $17,750 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-03-10 Listed $19,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,303 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.