279 Russian Flag Way

Temelec, CA 95476

$290,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,281/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$889
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $-0/mo
• Annual: $-2/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-2/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (0.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#811 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+, housing B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prestwood Elementary (262 students, 30% FRL); Adele Harrison Middle (335 students, 38% FRL); Sonoma Valley High (1,127 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.