279 Russian Flag Way · Temelec, CA 95476

$290,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 1997 5,227 sqft lot $192/sqft · at area comps Est $280k · at est. $889/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is in a land-lease community with monthly land lease $889
• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee; Monthly association fee $889; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, sauna, game room; gas metered; trash service included; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in-park double-wide; Built in 1997
• Construction: Wood skirting; Silvercrest make; manufactured by Delaware Western Hm Corp/Westwood
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.12 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Laundry area inside the home; Pets allowed (dogs and cats; size and number limits apply)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-2/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (0.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $281k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#811 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+, housing B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prestwood Elementary (262 students, 30% FRL); Adele Harrison Middle (335 students, 38% FRL); Sonoma Valley High (1,127 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 52% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 265 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,568
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: 3.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
282 Paseo Bolivar	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	4mo	$365,000	$251	79
230 E Seven Flags Cir	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,580 (+5%)	9mo	$159,950	$101	79
166 Seven Flags Cir	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	2mo	$285,000	$212	78
46 International Blvd	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	1mo	$189,000	$131	75
106 Drake Mews # 106	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	6mo	$288,000	$200	75
145 Bear Flag Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+2%)	2mo	$289,880	$189	74
123 Bear Flag Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	9mo	$200,000	$130	74
162 Bear Flag Rd	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	7mo	$262,000	$171	72
132 Bear Flag Rd	0.34mi	2/3.0	1,617 (+7%)	4mo	$437,750	$271	65
14 Fort Ross Way	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	8mo	$288,000	$214	64
42 Cabrillo Plz	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,632 (+8%)	10mo	$312,000	$191	64
258 English Flag Way	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-11%)	10mo	$278,500	$207	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-53,732
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-73,160
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $743/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$889
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,282

Max offer price $289,968

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $82	+0% $0	+5% $-82	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-259	-5% $-130	+0% $0	+5% $129	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $74	base $0	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $889 · $10,668/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $290,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $290,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $290,000 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $743 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,204 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,461/yr (+$122/mo · 196.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$743
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,150
• − Management: −$3,150
• − HOA: −$10,668
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$4,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Temelec

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #811
• US rank: #22885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temelec, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $743 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.