4808 Vesper Ct #34

New Port Richey, FL 34655

$167,500D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,105 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax + insurance: −$279
• HOA: −$690
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-383/mo
• Annual: $-4,591/yr
• Cap rate: 3.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.79%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $46,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $168k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (33.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#67 in FL, #1,139 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longleaf Elementary School (math 69% / reading 73%, grade A-, #320 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 639 students, 40% FRL); River Ridge Middle School (math 53% / reading 49%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,107 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 921 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 90d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.