10802 Lot 47 Highway 31

Atmore, AL 36502

$54,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,615/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax + insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $903/mo
• Annual: $10,833/yr
• Cap rate: 26.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.65%
• DSCR: 4.19
• 1% rule: 2.99%
• Cash to close: $15,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $54k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $51k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#530 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Escambia County (town): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #83 of 129 in AL (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 26.4% vs local median 7.4% in Atmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.