451 Crane St

Herculaneum, MO 63048

$200,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1965 · Other · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,947/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $327/mo
• Annual: $3,924/yr
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.7% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $195k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#542 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dunklin R-V (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #149 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pevely Elem. (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #520 of 1,115 statewide, top 47%, 708 students, 50% FRL); Senn-Thomas Middle (math 23% / reading 40%, grade F, #276 of 391 statewide, top 71%, 362 students, 48% FRL); Herculaneum High (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #28 of 521 statewide, top 6%, 489 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $200k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.9% in Herculaneum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.