451 Crane St · Herculaneum, MO 63048

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Other public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1965 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 451 Crane Street! You will fall in love the minute you drive up the custom stamped concrete driveway, the front porch is custom, and this yard is a blank canvas dream for any landscape lover. The open concept is perfect for this 1200 sq ft home with a separate dining area that can handle a big family get together. The kitchen offers tons of cabinet space with room enough for a future island. The living room is spacious with bright large windows and custom wainscotting. Good sized bedrooms and storage as well as a sizeable mud room that includes laundry and walks out to my favorite part... A huge flat backyard with partial fencing, a shed for extra storage and custom stamped patio with fire pit! It's going to be a great summer for this new owner.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New siding
• New roof

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW SIDING
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached heated garage with garage door opener (1 garage space); Driveway with asphalt and concrete surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (single phase, 220 volts, Ameren); Cable available, electricity connected, natural gas connected, phone available, sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; One-story house
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Assessor-reported year built source
• Exterior features: Front and rear porches and a patio; Private yard; Storage and outbuilding; Partial chain link fencing in back yard; Rectangular, sloped lot; Asphalt road frontage on a city street

Interior

• Kitchen: Range (electric); Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level (all bedrooms located on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level with step-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen with kitchen/dining room combo; Laminate countertops; Open floorplan; Insulated and low-emissivity windows with screens and window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup in garage; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.9% in Herculaneum — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#542 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dunklin R-V (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #149 of 324 in MO (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pevely Elem. (math 36% / reading 46%, grade F, #520 of 1,115 statewide, top 47%, 708 students, 50% FRL); Senn-Thomas Middle (math 23% / reading 40%, grade F, #276 of 391 statewide, top 71%, 362 students, 48% FRL); Herculaneum High (math 52% / reading 72%, grade B-, #28 of 521 statewide, top 6%, 489 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $200k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,656 (2.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,660
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $16,354
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63048

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $944/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,533

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $384	+0% $327	+5% $270	+10% $214
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $250	+0% $327	+5% $404	+10% $481
Rate	-1.0pp $428	-0.5pp $378	base $327	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
191 Oak Hill Holw Herculaneum, MO	4.0	3.0	1450	$1,995	$1.38	9d	1	0.66mi
92 W 3rd St Unit NA Pevely, MO	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,850	$1.36	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $200,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   remarks 693-char remark
5. 2026-06-12
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$996/yr (+$83/mo · 105.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$944
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$157
• After-tax cash flow: $3,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunklin R-V
• NCES district ID: 2914250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,839
• Composite: 33.62/100
• National rank: #5403
• State rank: #149 of 324 in MO

Livability — Herculaneum

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #542
• US rank: #20094

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herculaneum, MO
• City population: 4,143
• Population (ZIP): 4,143

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.70%
• Current HPI: 240.2239
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+344.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-11 Coming Soon $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-12 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-09 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-04 Listed $157,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-16 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-26 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-05 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-27 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-26 Listed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-23 Coming Soon $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-17 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-05 Listed $75,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $944 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.