825 Ashford Dr

Calera, AL 35040

$253,880D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,964/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,331
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-222/mo
• Annual: $-2,663/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.75%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $71,086

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (22.6% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calera Elementary (752 students, 64% FRL); Calera Middle (math 9% / reading 45%, grade F, #147 of 257 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 61% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.