Is 825 Ashford Dr in Calera, AL a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 5.5% cap rate and $-154/mo modeled cash flow at a $229,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 825 Ashford Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 5.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,816/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.52

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +10.6/15.0
Cash flow +9.6/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.4/5.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
1% rule +2.9/10.0
DSCR +2.7/10.0
Schools +2.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$229,900

825 Ashford Dr · Calera, AL 35040

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 784 sqft lot 2-car garage $189/sqft · 7% below area Est $247k · 7% under ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream retreat in the sought-after Camden Park community in Calera, AL. Located just minutes from the new Colonial Promenade Shopping Center, Theaters, Historic Heart of Dixie Railroad Museum, Timberline Golf Club - A Jerry Pate-designed golf course. The RC Wright plan is designed to feature an attractive and functional living space with a focus on curb appeal. This home features an open floor plan with 3bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a spacious master suite, and a stunning kitchen fully equipped with energy-efficient appliances.

Key facts

Open floor plan
2 garage spots
Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (9.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (21.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $182k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Calera Elementary (752 students, 64% FRL); Calera Middle (math 9% / reading 45%, grade F, #147 of 257 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 61% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 86d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $181,627 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.79% ✗
Cap rate: 5.49%
Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
DSCR: 0.87
GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $246,639
List price: $229,900
Delta: -6.79%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
283 Amber Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,209 (-1%)	5mo	$232,000	$192	86
817 Ashford Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-6%)	5mo	$213,620	$187	86
869 Ashford Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+11%)	4mo	$240,000	$177	77
813 Ashford Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-12%)	5mo	$211,620	$198	76
877 Ashford Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,068 (-12%)	5mo	$209,900	$197	76
609 Klynes Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-6%)	5mo	$230,000	$201	74
608 Klynes Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-6%)	5mo	$230,000	$201	70
252 18th St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,215 (-0%)	4mo	$192,000	$158	63
641 Meriweather Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+9%)	1mo	$231,900	$176	59
875 Meriweather Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+10%)	5mo	$223,000	$166	59
2067 Turquoise Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+11%)	0mo	$248,400	$184	59
2024 Turquoise Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+11%)	2mo	$260,900	$194	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -20.3%
Equity multiple: 0.29×
Total profit: $-45,798
Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

IRR: -12.0%
Equity multiple: 0.27×
Total profit: $-47,266
Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 38 active · 28 under contract
Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $251,450 ($183/sqft)
Median days on market: 160 d
This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +10.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 35040

Home prices YoY: -16.5%
Rents YoY: 3.7%
Active inventory: 472
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,816 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
Insurance: −$96
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $207,626

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-74	+0% $-154	+5% $-233	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-226	+0% $-154	+5% $-82	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-38	-0.5pp $-95	base $-154	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $57,475
Closing costs: $6,897
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Ashford Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,895	$1.87	119d	1	0.04mi
817 Ashford Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,895	$1.66	119d	1	0.04mi
813 Ashford Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,084	$1.95	86d	1	0.04mi
884 Camden Loop Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,485	$1.30	7d	1	0.09mi
1114 Emerald Ridge Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,476	$1.27	93d	1	0.28mi
1925 2nd Ave Calera, AL	3.0	1.5	1005	$1,618	$1.61	80d	1	0.58mi
127 Renwick Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,501	$1.08	119d	1	0.72mi
747 17th St Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,300	$1.01	7d	1	0.73mi
512 Camden Cove Cir Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	88d	1	0.91mi
512 Camden Cove Cir Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	86d	1	0.91mi
141 Flagstone Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,496	$1.13	6d	1	0.99mi
108 Flagstone Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,385	$1.08	72d	1	1.06mi
208 Hampton Dr Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,738	$1.34	112d	1	1.06mi
134 Mayfair Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,600	$1.39	7d	1	1.07mi
104 Mayfair Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,461	$1.01	4d	1	1.09mi
500 Margaret Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,653	$1.24	66d	1	1.15mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Monthly garbage fee ($25)
HOA & community: HOA fees cover common grounds maintenance and management

Exterior

Parking: Attached front-entry 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterConnected sewerGas water heaterUnderground utilitiesInternet available from AT&T or Spectrum
Home design: New construction (completed)One-story living areas noted (main and upper levels listed)1-side brick and vinyl siding exteriorSlab foundation
Construction: 1-side brick and vinyl siding construction
Exterior features: Covered patioPorchSidewalksStreet lights

Interior

Kitchen: Laminate countertopsBuilt-in dishwasherGarbage disposalBuilt-in microwaveRefrigerator includedGas stoveSome stainless appliances
Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main levelAdditional bedrooms on main levelWalk-in closetsSplit bedroom layoutLinen closet
Flooring: CarpetHardwood laminateVinyl
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsTub/shower combo
Heating & cooling: Gas heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features: 9 ft. or higher ceilingsRecessed lightingPull-down attic accessLiving area total per building plan
Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry roomWasher hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $229,900 Active 35 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $229,900 Active 34 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $229,900 Active 33 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $229,900 Active 32 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $229,900 Active 31 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $229,900 Active 30 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $229,900 Active 29 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $229,900 Active 28 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $229,900 Active 27 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $229,900 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $229,900 Active 25 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $229,900 Active 24 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $229,900 Active 23 DOM
2026-09-12

remarks 683-char remark
2026-09-12

price $229,900 Active 22 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $239,900 Active 22 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $239,900 Active 16 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $239,900 Active 15 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $239,900 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $239,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $239,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $239,900 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $239,900 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $239,900 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $239,900 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $239,900 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $239,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $239,900 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-20

pricedays on marketlisting id $239,900 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $247,625 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $247,625 Active 117 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $247,625 Active 116 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $247,625 Active 115 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $247,625 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $247,625 Active 113 DOM

Show marketing remark (671 chars)

Welcome to your dream retreat in the sought-after Camden Park community in Calera, AL. Located just minutes from the new Colonial Promenade Shopping Center, Theaters, Historic Heart of Dixie Railroad Museum, Timberline Golf Club - A Jerry Pate-designed golf course. The RC Wright plan is designed to feature an attractive and functional living space with a focus on curb appeal. This home features an open floor plan with 3bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a spacious master suite, and a stunning kitchen fully equipped with energy-efficient appliances. The layout of the RC Wright plan emphasizes the open floor concept, allowing for a seamless flow between different living spaces
2026-08-15

price $247,625 Active 112 DOM

Show marketing remark (671 chars)

Welcome to your dream retreat in the sought-after Camden Park community in Calera, AL. Located just minutes from the new Colonial Promenade Shopping Center, Theaters, Historic Heart of Dixie Railroad Museum, Timberline Golf Club - A Jerry Pate-designed golf course. The RC Wright plan is designed to feature an attractive and functional living space with a focus on curb appeal. This home features an open floor plan with 3bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a spacious master suite, and a stunning kitchen fully equipped with energy-efficient appliances. The layout of the RC Wright plan emphasizes the open floor concept, allowing for a seamless flow between different living spaces
2026-08-14

days on market $246,125 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $246,125 Active 111 DOM

Show marketing remark (404 chars)

This new single-story home is perfect for modern lifestyles. An inviting open-concept layout blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with a nearby covered patio for simple indoor-outdoor living. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side for optimal comfort and privacy, including the luxe owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.
2026-08-12

days on market $246,125 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $246,125 Active 109 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $246,125 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $246,125 Active 107 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $246,125 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $246,125 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $246,125 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $246,125 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $246,125 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $246,125 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $246,125 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $246,125 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $21,795
− Mortgage interest: −$12,878
− Property taxes: −$3,448
− Insurance: −$1,150
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
− Management: −$1,744
− Depreciation: −$6,688
Taxable loss: −$5,856

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,405
After-tax cash flow: $-442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring in bathrooms can significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
Both Add landscaping around the front of the house — Landscaping can enhance curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑
Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
Both Add a small outdoor seating area — An outdoor seating area can increase the home's appeal and add value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 23/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Calera Elementary Middle Calera Middle F AL #147/257 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Calera High F AL #169/305 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Shelby County
NCES district ID: 0103030
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
Median HH income: $66,672
Composite: 39.29/100
National rank: #3995
State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Calera

Score: 59/100
State rank: #325
US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Calera, AL
County: Shelby County · 237,024 people
City population: 19,304
Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
Population (ZIP): 19,304
Household income: $84,554
Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 237,024 people
By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
Current HPI: 220.2843
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Financial Services	1	$8B
#317 Regions Financial Birmingham $8.2B
Healthcare	1	$5B
#300 Encompass Health Birmingham $5.3B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

2026-08-20 Listed $239,900 Greater Alabama MLS
2026-08-15 Price Changed $247,625 Greater Alabama MLS
2026-08-13 Price Changed $247,625 Zillow
2026-07-25 Price Changed $246,125 Greater Alabama MLS
2026-07-24 Price Changed $246,125 Zillow
2026-07-22 Price Changed $250,762 Zillow
2026-07-11 Price Changed $249,762 Zillow
2026-07-11 Price Changed $249,762 Greater Alabama MLS
2026-07-04 Price Changed $255,380 Greater Alabama MLS
2026-06-27 Price Changed $255,380 Zillow
2026-05-31 Price Changed $253,880 Greater Alabama MLS
2026-05-30 Price Changed $253,880 Zillow
2026-05-30 Price Changed $247,250 Greater Alabama MLS
2026-05-26 Price Changed $258,380 Zillow
2026-04-24 Listed $249,380 Greater Alabama MLS
2026-04-23 Price Changed $252,380 Zillow
2026-04-18 Listed $249,380 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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