1187 Winegardner Rd

Napier, PA 15559

$270,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,102 sqft · Built 1906 · SingleFamily · Active · 431 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-447/mo
• Annual: $-5,359/yr
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.09%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-447 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (42.6% below list).
• It's been on market 431 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chestnut Ridge SD (rural): math 41% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #183 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chestnut Ridge Central El Sch (324 students, 58% FRL); Chestnut Ridge Ms (math 38% / reading 60%, grade C-, #140 of 512 statewide, top 28%, 418 students, 54% FRL); Chestnut Ridge Shs (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C-, #99 of 437 statewide, top 23%, 490 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $270k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 431 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.