1187 Winegardner Rd · Napier, PA 15559

$270,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,102 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 431 Days on market

Built 1906 1.19 ac lot $87/sqft · 33% below area Est $405k · 33% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautiful 5-bedroom, 3-bath home nestled in the peaceful countryside, boasting stunning mountain views. The spacious, open floor plan is perfect for family living and entertaining, with large living areas and a well-equipped kitchen. Each bedroom offers comfort and privacy, making it ideal for families or guests. Outside, enjoy breathtaking views of the mountains and a serene, country atmosphere. This home combines the best of country living with modern conveniences. A perfect retreat for those seeking tranquility not far from town!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Serene retreat
• Mountain views

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• SERENE RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-447 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (42.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (42.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chestnut Ridge SD (rural): math 41% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #183 of 539 in PA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 431 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $270k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,978 (42.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 431 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.09%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $404,996
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -33.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
459 Tomco Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,811 (-9%)	8mo	$620,000	$221	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $48,748
• Equity at exit: $169,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $165,639
• Equity at exit: $305,907

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15559

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 14.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,115

Max offer price $191,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-294	-5% $-370	+0% $-447	+5% $-523	+10% $-599
Rent	-10% $-569	-5% $-508	+0% $-447	+5% $-385	+10% $-324
Rate	-1.0pp $-311	-0.5pp $-378	base $-447	+0.5pp $-517	+1.0pp $-588

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-09-30
   price $270,000 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Discover this beautiful 5-bedroom, 3-bath home nestled in the peaceful countryside, boasting stunning mountain views. The spacious, open floor plan is perfect for family living and entertaining, with large living areas and a well-equipped kitchen. Each bedroom offers comfort and privacy, making it ideal for families or guests. Outside, enjoy breathtaking views of the mountains and a serene, country atmosphere. This home combines the best of country living with modern conveniences. A perfect retreat for those seeking tranquility not far from town!

2. 2025-03-25
   listed $299,000 Active 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Discover this beautiful 5-bedroom, 3-bath home nestled in the peaceful countryside, boasting stunning mountain views. The spacious, open floor plan is perfect for family living and entertaining, with large living areas and a well-equipped kitchen. Each bedroom offers comfort and privacy, making it ideal for families or guests. Outside, enjoy breathtaking views of the mountains and a serene, country atmosphere. This home combines the best of country living with modern conveniences. A perfect retreat for those seeking tranquility not far from town!

3. 2025-01-27
   price $310,000
4. 2024-10-29
   price $325,000
5. 2009-07-01
   soldstatus $103,000
6. 2009-03-02
   listed $115,900
7. 2008-06-19
   listed $119,900
8. 2003-05-16
   soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,710 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,988 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,278/yr (+$106/mo · 74.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$10,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,500
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chestnut Ridge SD
• NCES district ID: 4205880
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,762
• Composite: 42.63/100
• National rank: #3185
• State rank: #183 of 539 in PA

Livability — Napier

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,407

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,395 people
• By 2030: 43,353 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 38,858 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 34,162 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 24,868 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 16,910 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.6) · D 15.4% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -68.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Current HPI: 147.0423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1127.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $270,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $299,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $310,000 AHARMLS
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $325,000 AHARMLS
• 2009-07-01 Sold (MLS) $103,000 AHARMLS
• 2009-03-02 Listed $115,900 AHARMLS
• 2008-06-19 Listed $119,900 AHARMLS
• 2003-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,710 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.