16 N 5th St

Fulton, NY 13069

$199,900F

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1908 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,466/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$343
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-233/mo
• Annual: $-2,798/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (20.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (26.7% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $147k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#907 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Fulton City School District (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #554 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Granby Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 471 students, 70% FRL); Fulton Junior High School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 500 students, 62% FRL); G Ray Bodley High School (math 83% / reading 86%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 976 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 6.7% in Fulton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.