1505 Ward Rd #218

Baytown, TX 77520

$54,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1971 · Condo · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $881/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$286
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-328/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $15,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $54k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-328/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $49k (8.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($881 rent vs $54k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?