1505 Ward Rd #218 · Baytown, TX 77520

$54,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Condo public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1971 $75/sqft · 20% below area Est $68k · 20% under $286/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This upstairs condominium in Walnut Ridge has its own private front porch and back balcony. It has one bedroom with two closets, a living room with a fireplace, and a renovated kitchen. It has a pool and BBQ area to enjoy. One assigned parking space and guest parking are also available. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Private front porch
• Renovated kitchen
• Bbq area

Tags

• PRIVATE FRONT PORCH
• BACK BALCONY
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• POOL
• BBQ AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-328/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $49k (8.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($881 rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,170 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,840
• List price: $54,000
• Delta: -20.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-11,745
• Equity at exit: $8,052

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-17,417
• Equity at exit: $4,669

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77520

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $881 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$286
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $915

Max offer price $49,170

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2300 Taft Cir Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$685	$0.64	1d	19	0.44mi
2111 Cedar Bayou Rd Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	684	$950	$1.39	43d	1	0.92mi
2700 Ward Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	683	$835	$1.22	17d	8	0.96mi
2700 Ward Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$835	$1.02	1d	32	0.96mi
301 Tri City Beach Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	792	$799	$1.01	43d	1	0.98mi
211 E Sterling Ave Unit 2 Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	640	$725	$1.13	24d	1	1.12mi
211 E Sterling Ave Unit 1 Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	640	$725	$1.13	43d	1	1.12mi
2509 Cedar Bayou Rd Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$1,200	$2.00	43d	1	1.12mi
510 Williams Ave Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	699	$834	$1.19	2d	5	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $286 · $3,432/yr
• Likely covers: poolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $54,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $54,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-04-28
    status Active 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    This upstairs condominium in Walnut Ridge has its own private front porch and back balcony. It has one bedroom with two closets, a living room with a fireplace, and a renovated kitchen. It has a pool and BBQ area to enjoy. One assigned parking space and guest parking are also available. Schedule your tour today!

14. 2026-04-16
    status Pending 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    This upstairs condominium in Walnut Ridge has its own private front porch and back balcony. It has one bedroom with two closets, a living room with a fireplace, and a renovated kitchen. It has a pool and BBQ area to enjoy. One assigned parking space and guest parking are also available. Schedule your tour today!

15. 2026-04-09
    listed $54,000 Active 313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    This upstairs condominium in Walnut Ridge has its own private front porch and back balcony. It has one bedroom with two closets, a living room with a fireplace, and a renovated kitchen. It has a pool and BBQ area to enjoy. One assigned parking space and guest parking are also available. Schedule your tour today!

16. 2026-04-09
    historical

    Show marketing remark (313 chars)

    This upstairs condominium in Walnut Ridge has its own private front porch and back balcony. It has one bedroom with two closets, a living room with a fireplace, and a renovated kitchen. It has a pool and BBQ area to enjoy. One assigned parking space and guest parking are also available. Schedule your tour today!

17. 2026-01-01
    status Active
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-12-18
    price $54,000
20. 2025-10-06
    price $58,500
21. 2025-09-20
    listed $60,000 Active
22. 2025-09-20
    historical
23. 2025-08-08
    price $60,000
24. 2025-07-17
    price $63,999
25. 2025-06-18
    historical $950
26. 2025-06-05
    price $65,000
27. 2025-05-01
    price $68,000
28. 2025-04-26
    price $950
29. 2025-02-19
    listed $1,000
30. 2025-02-18
    price $74,000
31. 2024-12-18
    listed $83,000 Active
32. 2024-05-15
    historical $1,000
33. 2024-04-16
    price $1,000
34. 2024-04-04
    price $1,100
35. 2024-03-21
    price $1,150
36. 2024-02-25
    listed $1,200
37. 2023-05-22
    soldstatus
38. 2023-05-22
    soldstatus
39. 2023-05-19
    soldstatus Sold
40. 2023-05-15
    status Pending
41. 2023-04-10
    status Active
42. 2023-03-31
    historical
43. 2023-03-29
    price $72,900
44. 2023-03-21
    price $74,900
45. 2023-01-27
    listed $80,000 Active
46. 2017-05-24
    soldstatus
47. 2015-11-03
    soldstatus
48. 2015-10-30
    soldstatus Sold
49. 2015-10-19
    status Pending
50. 2015-09-29
    listed $35,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$1,577
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$846
• − Management: −$846
• − HOA: −$3,432
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable loss: −$997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$239
• After-tax cash flow: $-89/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,355
• Household income: $54,278
• Rent vs Own: 47.8% rent · 52.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1559.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.36%
• Current HPI: 262.066
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+52.1% since first listed

45 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $54,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $54,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $58,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $60,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $63,999 HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Rental Removed $950 HARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $68,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $950 HARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed for Rent $1,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $74,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-18 Listed $83,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-15 Rental Removed $1,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-16 Price Changed $1,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $1,100 HARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2024-02-25 Listed for Rent $1,200 HARMLS
• 2023-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-29 Price Changed $72,900 HARMLS
• 2023-03-21 Price Changed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2023-01-27 Listed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2017-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-10-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-29 Listed $35,500 HARMLS
• 2005-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,577 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.