9 Tracy Cove Cir

Norridgewock, ME 04963

$519,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax + insurance: −$865
• HOA: −$103
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-2,023/mo
• Annual: $-24,272/yr
• Cap rate: 1.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.70%
• DSCR: 0.26
• 1% rule: 0.41%
• Cash to close: $145,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $519k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (56.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (59.3% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($503k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (59.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• RSU 18 (rural): math 88% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #36 of 112 in ME (top 32%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Belgrade Central School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #106 of 294 statewide, top 50%, 239 students, 33% FRL); Messalonskee Middle School (math 86% / reading 88%, grade A+, #28 of 85 statewide, top 37%, 452 students, 32% FRL); Messalonskee High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #27 of 108 statewide, top 36%, 725 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.