9 Tracy Cove Cir · Norridgewock, ME 04963

$519,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1995 1.14 ac lot $240/sqft · 54% below area $103/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the best of Maine's lake life at 9 Tracy Cove Circle - priced well below appraised value! This thoughtfully maintained home offers 300 feet of shared shoreline with a dedicated dock space and swim area, and a private 1.14-acre setting surrounded by trees and perennial gardens in a peaceful Long Pond community. The bright, open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, perfect for gatherings or quiet evenings. Comfort meets versatility with four bedrooms and two baths -- including a convenient ground-level suite with private bath and office for remote work or creativity -- and a cozy screened porch for morning coffee or evening relaxation. A heated two-car garage, efficient heat pumps, and an automatic generator ensure reliable, year-round living. Located minutes from Belgrade Lakes Village, golf, dining, and outdoor recreation opportunities abound, with easy commutes to Augusta, Waterville, and Farmington. Recent improvements include a 2022 roof, new garage doors, updated lighting and plumbing fixtures, and fresh paint inside and out. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, low-maintenance second home, or investment property, this unique offering blends lake access, privacy, and convenience, without the waterfront costs. Don't miss the chance to enjoy the best of Belgrade Lakes this summer. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (56.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (59.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (59.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• RSU 18 (rural): math 88% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #36 of 112 in ME (top 32%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Belgrade Central School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #106 of 294 statewide, top 50%, 239 students, 33% FRL); Messalonskee Middle School (math 86% / reading 88%, grade A+, #28 of 85 statewide, top 37%, 452 students, 32% FRL); Messalonskee High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #27 of 108 statewide, top 36%, 725 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($503k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $211,012 (59.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.70%
• DSCR: 0.26
• GRM: 20.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,137,796
• List price: $519,000
• Delta: -54.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 Augusta Rd	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,162 (+0%)	8mo	$610,000	$282	72
149 Peninsula Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,100 (-3%)	17mo	$1,100,000	$524	60
131 Peninsula Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,115 (-2%)	22mo	$1,225,000	$579	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $153,930
• Equity at exit: $467,556

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.82×
• Total profit: $554,795
• Equity at exit: $1,008,303

Cash invested: $145,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04963

• Home prices YoY: 25.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 20.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$649 /mo · $7,785/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$103
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-2,023

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,670

Max offer price $226,312

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,664	-5% $-1,843	+0% $-2,023	+5% $-2,202	+10% $-2,381
Rent	-10% $-2,189	-5% $-2,106	+0% $-2,023	+5% $-1,939	+10% $-1,856
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,761	-0.5pp $-1,891	base $-2,023	+0.5pp $-2,157	+1.0pp $-2,294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,750
• Closing costs: $15,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $103 · $1,236/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Active 1374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1374 chars)

   Experience the best of Maine's lake life at 9 Tracy Cove Circle - priced well below appraised value! This thoughtfully maintained home offers 300 feet of shared shoreline with a dedicated dock space and swim area, and a private 1.14-acre setting surrounded by trees and perennial gardens in a peaceful Long Pond community. The bright, open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, perfect for gatherings or quiet evenings. Comfort meets versatility with four bedrooms and two baths -- including a convenient ground-level suite with private bath and office for remote work or creativity -- and a cozy screened porch for morning coffee or evening relaxation. A heated two-car garage, efficient heat pumps, and an automatic generator ensure reliable, year-round living. Located minutes from Belgrade Lakes Village, golf, dining, and outdoor recreation opportunities abound, with easy commutes to Augusta, Waterville, and Farmington. Recent improvements include a 2022 roof, new garage doors, updated lighting and plumbing fixtures, and fresh paint inside and out. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, low-maintenance second home, or investment property, this unique offering blends lake access, privacy, and convenience, without the waterfront costs. Don't miss the chance to enjoy the best of Belgrade Lakes this summer. Schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-04-27
   historical Active Under Contract 1374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1374 chars)

   Experience the best of Maine's lake life at 9 Tracy Cove Circle - priced well below appraised value! This thoughtfully maintained home offers 300 feet of shared shoreline with a dedicated dock space and swim area, and a private 1.14-acre setting surrounded by trees and perennial gardens in a peaceful Long Pond community. The bright, open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, perfect for gatherings or quiet evenings. Comfort meets versatility with four bedrooms and two baths -- including a convenient ground-level suite with private bath and office for remote work or creativity -- and a cozy screened porch for morning coffee or evening relaxation. A heated two-car garage, efficient heat pumps, and an automatic generator ensure reliable, year-round living. Located minutes from Belgrade Lakes Village, golf, dining, and outdoor recreation opportunities abound, with easy commutes to Augusta, Waterville, and Farmington. Recent improvements include a 2022 roof, new garage doors, updated lighting and plumbing fixtures, and fresh paint inside and out. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, low-maintenance second home, or investment property, this unique offering blends lake access, privacy, and convenience, without the waterfront costs. Don't miss the chance to enjoy the best of Belgrade Lakes this summer. Schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-04-10
   listed $519,000 Active 1374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1374 chars)

   Experience the best of Maine's lake life at 9 Tracy Cove Circle - priced well below appraised value! This thoughtfully maintained home offers 300 feet of shared shoreline with a dedicated dock space and swim area, and a private 1.14-acre setting surrounded by trees and perennial gardens in a peaceful Long Pond community. The bright, open layout connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, perfect for gatherings or quiet evenings. Comfort meets versatility with four bedrooms and two baths -- including a convenient ground-level suite with private bath and office for remote work or creativity -- and a cozy screened porch for morning coffee or evening relaxation. A heated two-car garage, efficient heat pumps, and an automatic generator ensure reliable, year-round living. Located minutes from Belgrade Lakes Village, golf, dining, and outdoor recreation opportunities abound, with easy commutes to Augusta, Waterville, and Farmington. Recent improvements include a 2022 roof, new garage doors, updated lighting and plumbing fixtures, and fresh paint inside and out. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, low-maintenance second home, or investment property, this unique offering blends lake access, privacy, and convenience, without the waterfront costs. Don't miss the chance to enjoy the best of Belgrade Lakes this summer. Schedule your showing today!

4. 2025-11-14
   price $559,000
5. 2025-10-21
   price $575,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,072
• − Property taxes: −$7,785
• − Insurance: −$2,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − HOA: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$15,098
• Taxable loss: −$34,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 18
• NCES district ID: 2314779
• Math proficiency: 88% ▲ 53.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 32.00%
• Median HH income: $55,125
• Composite: 75.2/100
• National rank: #139
• State rank: #36 of 112 in ME

Livability — Norridgewock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #11439

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,375

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 76.94%
• Current HPI: 383.7687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — MREIS
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — MREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $519,000 MREIS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $559,000 MREIS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $575,000 MREIS