2537 Jasmine Trace Dr

Poinciana, FL 34758

$255,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$566
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-436/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-436/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reedy Creek Elementary School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 880 students, 55% FRL); Poinciana High School (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #470 of 667 statewide, top 71%, 2,455 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 610 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $255k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.