2537 Jasmine Trace Dr · Poinciana, FL 34758

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1997 8,843 sqft lot Est $381k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Three-bedroom, two-bathroom investment opportunity in the heart of Kissimmee. This property presents a fantastic chance for those looking to add value through renovation. While the home requires some repairs, its competitive price point provides ample room for cosmetic updates to bring it back to its full potential. A standout feature of this property is the lack of rear neighbors, offering a rare sense of privacy and a peaceful backdrop in a vibrant part of Florida. The home is situated within a community rich in amenities, perfect for an active lifestyle. . Whether you are looking for a primary residence to customize or a solid addition to an invest

Key facts

• 8,843 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1997

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Corner lot acreage ~0.2 (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces northeast; Residential zoning (OPUD)
• Construction: Brick, stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area ~1868 (public records)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Corner lot; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: No laundry room features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-436/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reedy Creek Elementary School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 880 students, 55% FRL); Poinciana High School (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #470 of 667 statewide, top 71%, 2,455 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 604 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $255k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,365 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,072
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5113 Sage Way	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,854 (-1%)	8mo	$348,000	$188	75
5430 Crepe Myrtle Cir	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,744 (-7%)	8mo	$358,000	$205	66
5114 Sage Way	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,731 (-7%)	2mo	$345,000	$199	63
5407 Harmony Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,744 (-7%)	4mo	$355,500	$204	60
2445 Ravendale Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,768 (-5%)	10mo	$385,000	$218	57
2385 Andrews Valley Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,010 (+8%)	7mo	$400,000	$199	54
5100 Violet Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,698 (-9%)	10mo	$367,990	$217	53
2526 Sage Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-13%)	9mo	$429,000	$265	53
2503 Aster Cove Ln	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,084 (+12%)	7mo	$425,000	$204	53
2400 Regent Way	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (-8%)	1mo	$330,000	$191	51
5287 Sunset Canyon Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,088 (+12%)	5mo	$355,000	$170	40
2224 Paria Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-13%)	10mo	$340,000	$208	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-48,589
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-64,726
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 604
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,364 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,522/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,410

Max offer price $248,576

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $36	+0% $-36	+5% $-109	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-130	+0% $-36	+5% $57	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $28	base $-36	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5212 Jasmine Trace Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,400	$1.37	24d	1	0.06mi
2548 Aster Cove Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2084	$2,480	$1.19	18d	1	0.15mi
2505 Aster Cove Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1846	$2,500	$1.35	15d	1	0.25mi
2346 Andrews Valley Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2380	$2,350	$0.99	5d	1	0.37mi
2317 Walnut Canyon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2010	$2,100	$1.04	3d	1	0.50mi
2418 Peace Cir Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1341	$1,901	$1.42	24d	1	0.57mi
5578 Willow Bend Trl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	24d	1	0.74mi
2533 Old Kent Cir Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1888	$2,000	$1.06	15d	1	0.77mi
5539 Sycamore Canyon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,250	$1.22	17d	1	0.80mi
4967 Pall Mall St Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1741	$2,500	$1.44	5d	1	0.82mi
4986 Thames St Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,500	$1.43	24d	1	0.85mi
5620 Sycamore Canyon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,150	$1.31	24d	1	0.86mi
2253 Sheboygan Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,100	$1.15	12d	1	1.16mi
2362 Barton Bay Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,950	$1.06	24d	1	1.19mi
2855 Moonstone Bnd Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1784	$1,850	$1.04	8d	1	1.25mi
2875 Sunstone Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1985	$2,000	$1.01	24d	1	1.32mi
2905 Sunstone Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1985	$1,900	$0.96	8d	1	1.37mi
4781 Rockvale Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1972	$2,171	$1.10	8d	1	1.40mi
4729 Greycliff Prairie Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,100	$1.15	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $255,000 Active
2. 1998-03-25
   soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,522 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,522 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$5,522
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,269
• − Management: −$2,269
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+104.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,522 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.