1614 12th St

Harlan, IA 51537

$42,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · Built 1911 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $855/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $405/mo
• Annual: $4,859/yr
• Cap rate: 17.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.32%
• DSCR: 2.84
• 1% rule: 2.04%
• Cash to close: $11,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($855 rent vs $42k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#79 in IA, #1,656 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlan Community School District (town): math 72% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #81 of 289 in IA (top 28%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $42k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 4.0% in Harlan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.