1614 12th St · Harlan, IA 51537

$42,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1911 6,970 sqft lot Est $74k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Bedroom Fixer Upper. This home needs some TLC. Property to be sold AS IS with no seller repairs.

Key facts

• Kitchen with stove
• Laundry area
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• KITCHEN WITH STOVE
• KITCHEN WITH REFRIGERATOR
• LIVING ROOM
• BATH WITH TUB
• LAUNDRY AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.16 acres (80 x 88)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($855 rent vs $42k).
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 4.0% in Harlan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#79 in IA, #1,656 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlan Community School District (town): math 72% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #81 of 289 in IA (top 28%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $42k implies a 367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $42,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.32%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,214
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
912 Tarkington St	0.71mi	2/1.0	816 (+2%)	2mo	$76,000	$93	62
2009 College Pl	0.40mi	2/2.0	874 (+10%)	19mo	$100,000	$114	46
2309 6th St	0.55mi	2/1.0	888 (+11%)	15mo	$18,000	$20	43
408 Hill St	0.70mi	2/1.0	893 (+12%)	21mo	$56,500	$63	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $18,983
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $49,740
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51537

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $343

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $417	+0% $405	+5% $393	+10% $381
Rent	-10% $337	-5% $371	+0% $405	+5% $439	+10% $472
Rate	-1.0pp $426	-0.5pp $416	base $405	+0.5pp $394	+1.0pp $383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
500 12th St Harlan, IA	2.0	1.0	700	$700	$1.00	44d	1	0.76mi
611 Gary Scull Dr Unit 13-203 Harlan, IA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,056	$1.10	44d	1	1.02mi
611 Gary Scull Dr Unit 13-204 Harlan, IA	2.0	1.0	960	$875	$0.91	44d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-24
   listed $42,000 Active
2. 2019-01-11
   soldstatus $9,000 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   2 Bedroom Fixer Upper. This home needs some TLC. Property to be sold AS IS with no seller repairs.

3. 2019-01-11
   soldstatus $9,000

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   2 Bedroom Fixer Upper. This home needs some TLC. Property to be sold AS IS with no seller repairs.

4. 2018-09-26
   listed $18,000 98-char remark

   Show marketing remark (98 chars)

   2 Bedroom Fixer Upper. This home needs some TLC. Property to be sold AS IS with no seller repairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $528 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$132/yr (+$11/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$821
• − Management: −$821
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $4,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $3,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1913500
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,557
• Composite: 62.95/100
• National rank: #656
• State rank: #81 of 289 in IA

Livability — Harlan

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harlan, IA
• Population (ZIP): 6,480

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,637 people
• By 2030: 11,472 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 11,146 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 10,791 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 10,601 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 10,338 · -11.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+40.3 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.04%
• Current HPI: 209.5911
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+133.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $42,000 IAR
• 2019-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-11 Sold (MLS) $9,000 IAR
• 2018-09-26 Listed $18,000 IAR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.