239 Twin Lakes Dr

Canton, MS 39046

$199,999F

1 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,830 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,252/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-238/mo
• Annual: $-2,854/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (37.4% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#229 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Canton Public School District (rural): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #100 of 130 in MS (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 94% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canton Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #279 of 375 statewide, top 77%, 391 students, 100% FRL); Nichols Middle School (math 13% / reading 15%, grade F, #138 of 179 statewide, top 78%, 396 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Canton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.